New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Wed, Oct 21
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Sam Houston home
- Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico State visits Sam Houston in Week 8.
New Mexico State travels to Sam Houston at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Adam Damante (NMSU), TK King (NMSU), and Grady O'Neill (SHSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Adam Damante (NMSU).
Venue context
Sam Houston is the designated home team at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico State pass protection vs Sam Houston pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Sam Houston's pass rush graded 61.0 (123rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Sam Houston pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
Sam Houston's pass protection graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico State's pass rush.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs Sam Houston coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Sam Houston's coverage graded 58.4 (122nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico State's receiving corps.
Sam Houston receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
Sam Houston's receiving corps graded 59.5 in 2025 (130th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico State's coverage.
New Mexico State rush offense vs Sam Houston run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Sam Houston's run defense graded 65.0 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Sam Houston's run defense.
Sam Houston rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
Sam Houston's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (93rd of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 13.54.7–21.7 | 189107–277 | — | — | — |
| TK KingELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.05.1–20.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.4 | 5621–83 |
| Dijon Stanleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.03.3–16.0 | — | 3410–56 | 2.00.0–3.4 | 160–27 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–13.6 | — | — | — | 4012–58 |
| Brodie Malone-Bradfordbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.42.6–13.6 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3211–48 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.8–12.2 | — | 315–53 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | — |
| Myles Libmanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
Sam Houston
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grady O'NeillVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.34.3–17.5 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.4 | 5418–76 |
| Chris ReedVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.33.8–19.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.5 | 5315–77 |
| Landan Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.43.4–17.3 | — | 4213–65 | 2.00.9–3.8 | 240–39 |
| Landyn LockeVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.92.7–19.5 | 14952–251 | — | — | — |
| Alton McCaskillELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.22.0–11.9 | — | 368–61 | — | — |
| Tim Burns Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.8–11.1 | — | — | — | 298–43 |
| Max Whisnerbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.7–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Aviyon Smith-Mackbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.9–9.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–4.1 | 268–39 |
| Darrick Bledsoe IIIbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
New Mexico State
- Pass yds
- 189
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 26
Sam Houston
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 24
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteQB · NMSU | Passing yards | 189.4 | 203.0 | 107.0–276.8 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 56.3 | 44.4 | 20.9–82.9 | Shop the line |
| Grady O'NeillWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 53.5 | 41.6 | 18.2–76.2 | Shop the line |
| Chris ReedWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 53.1 | 38.4 | 15.2–77.2 | Shop the line |
| Landan BrownRB · SHSU | Rushing yards | 41.6 | 37.7 | 12.7–65.0 | Shop the line |
| Landyn LockeQB · SHSU | Passing yards | 148.8 | 168.0 | 52.2–251.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 189.4
- Median
- 203.0
- 20th–80th
- 107.0–276.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.3
- Median
- 44.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.9–82.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.5
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 18.2–76.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.1
- Median
- 38.4
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–77.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.6
- Median
- 37.7
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–65.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 148.8
- Median
- 168.0
- 20th–80th
- 52.2–251.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated