Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy Trojans college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Troy home
- Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
- Captured market
- TROY -15.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Troy carries the early number into Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL).
Sam Houston travels to Troy at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL). The captured market lists Troy as a 15.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Goose Crowder (TROY), Grady O'Neill (SHSU), and Chris Reed (SHSU).
Market frame
Troy is the captured favorite by 15.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Goose Crowder (TROY).
Venue context
Troy is the designated home team at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Sam Houston pass protection vs Troy pass rush
Sam Houston's pass protection graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); Troy's pass rush graded 64.0 (83rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Troy pass protection vs Sam Houston pass rush
Troy's pass protection graded 57.0 in 2025 (121st of 136); Sam Houston's pass rush graded 61.0 (123rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Sam Houston receiving corps vs Troy coverage
Sam Houston's receiving corps graded 59.5 in 2025 (130th of 136); Troy's coverage graded 62.3 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Troy's coverage.
Troy receiving corps vs Sam Houston coverage
Troy's receiving corps graded 63.3 in 2025 (86th of 136); Sam Houston's coverage graded 58.4 (122nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Troy's receiving corps. Troy's receiving corps returns only 13.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Sam Houston rush offense vs Troy run defense
Sam Houston's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Troy's run defense graded 66.0 (79th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Troy rush offense vs Sam Houston run defense
Troy's rush offense graded 68.2 in 2025 (130th of 136); Sam Houston's run defense graded 65.0 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Sam Houston's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Sam Houston
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grady O'NeillHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.9–15.9 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.3 | 5117–75 |
| Chris Reedbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.4–17.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 5014–75 |
| Landan BrownELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.83.0–15.7 | — | 3311–60 | 2.10.9–3.7 | 200–37 |
| Landyn Lockebalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.31.6–18.3 | 13346–222 | — | — | — |
| Tim Burns Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.81.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 287–43 |
| Alton McCaskillbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.7–11.0 | — | 327–58 | — | — |
| Aviyon Smith-MackELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.7–8.8 | — | — | 2.31.0–4.0 | 247–39 |
| Max WhisnerELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 5.21.5–8.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Darrick Bledsoe IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.31.5–8.8 | — | — | — | 246–33 |
Troy
3 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goose CrowderVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 16.97.0–25.1 | 200129–293 | — | — | — |
| Mojo Dortchbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.8–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | — |
| Jordan Lovettbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.4–11.0 | — | — | — | 130–23 |
Sam Houston
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 20
- Pass yds
- 133
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 24
- Rec yds
- 24
Troy
- Pass yds
- 200
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 13
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goose CrowderQB · TROY | Passing yards | 200.4 | 231.1 | 128.8–293.0 | Shop the line |
| Grady O'NeillWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 50.7 | 39.1 | 16.7–74.5 | Shop the line |
| Chris ReedWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 49.8 | 35.7 | 13.6–75.1 | Shop the line |
| Landan BrownRB · SHSU | Rushing yards | 32.7 | 26.6 | 11.1–59.6 | Shop the line |
| Landyn LockeQB · SHSU | Passing yards | 133.2 | 140.5 | 46.0–221.9 | Shop the line |
| Mojo DortchWR · TROY | Receptions | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0–3.7 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 200.4
- Median
- 231.1
- 20th–80th
- 128.8–293.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.7
- Median
- 39.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.7–74.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.8
- Median
- 35.7
- 20th–80th
- 13.6–75.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 32.7
- Median
- 26.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.1–59.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 133.2
- Median
- 140.5
- 20th–80th
- 46.0–221.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 2.4
- Median
- 1.4
- 20th–80th
- 1.0–3.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated