Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Northern Illinois home
- Huskie Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Air Force visits Northern Illinois in Week 6.
Air Force travels to Northern Illinois at Huskie Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Liam Szarka (AF), Jalen Macon (NIU), and Owen Allen (AF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Liam Szarka (AF).
Venue context
Northern Illinois is the designated home team at Huskie Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Air Force pass protection vs Northern Illinois pass rush
Air Force's pass protection graded 62.5 in 2025 (92nd of 136); Northern Illinois's pass rush graded 63.0 (96th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Northern Illinois pass protection vs Air Force pass rush
Northern Illinois's pass protection graded 58.6 in 2025 (115th of 136); Air Force's pass rush graded 69.1 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's pass rush.
Air Force receiving corps vs Northern Illinois coverage
Air Force's receiving corps graded 74.9 in 2025 (1st of 136); Northern Illinois's coverage graded 62.3 (94th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's receiving corps. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Northern Illinois receiving corps vs Air Force coverage
Northern Illinois's receiving corps graded 58.4 in 2025 (132nd of 136); Air Force's coverage graded 56.2 (132nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Air Force rush offense vs Northern Illinois run defense
Air Force's rush offense graded 73.0 in 2025 (94th of 136); Northern Illinois's run defense graded 66.5 (76th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Northern Illinois's run defense. Northern Illinois's run defense returns only 12.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Northern Illinois rush offense vs Air Force run defense
Northern Illinois's rush offense graded 77.7 in 2025 (47th of 136); Air Force's run defense graded 64.8 (101st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Northern Illinois's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Air Force
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam SzarkaHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 16.04.7–25.9 | — | 6319–77 | — | — |
| Owen AllenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.3–19.7 | — | 7020–103 | — | — |
| Kemper HodgesELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 10.12.2–16.6 | — | 4410–71 | — | — |
| Josh JohnsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 9.51.7–15.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Jonah DawsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.6–12.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.7 | 4313–67 |
Northern Illinois
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Maconbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 12.83.2–23.1 | — | 448–74 | — | — |
| Rickey Taylor Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.53.1–15.0 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 4614–70 |
| Cam ThompsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.33.2–14.3 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.3 | 4715–67 |
| DeAree RogersVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.6–12.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Brady DavidsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 8.21.1–17.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Telly Johnson Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.5–13.9 | — | 4011–66 | — | — |
| Elijah PorterVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.11.3–11.1 | — | — | — | 120–14 |
| George DimopoulosHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.91.9–11.2 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.7 | — |
Air Force
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
Northern Illinois
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 40
- Rec yds
- 12
- Receptions
- 2.6
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam SzarkaQB · AF | Rushing yards | 63.0 | 50.4 | 18.9–76.9 | Shop the line |
| Jalen MaconQB · NIU | Rushing yards | 43.5 | 33.9 | 7.9–73.9 | Shop the line |
| Owen AllenRB · AF | Rushing yards | 70.3 | 62.4 | 19.8–103.4 | Shop the line |
| Kemper HodgesQB · AF | Rushing yards | 43.6 | 34.6 | 9.6–71.0 | Shop the line |
| Rickey Taylor Jr.WR · NIU | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 37.9 | 14.4–70.3 | Shop the line |
| Cam ThompsonWR · NIU | Receiving yards | 47.0 | 36.5 | 14.5–67.3 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 63.0
- Median
- 50.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–76.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.5
- Median
- 33.9
- 20th–80th
- 7.9–73.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 70.3
- Median
- 62.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–103.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.6
- Median
- 34.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–71.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.5
- Median
- 37.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.4–70.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.0
- Median
- 36.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.5–67.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated