Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 10:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- New Mexico home
- University Stadium (NM)
- Captured market
- UNM -12.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico carries the early number into University Stadium (NM).
Central Michigan travels to New Mexico at University Stadium (NM). The captured market lists New Mexico as a 12.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jack Layne (UNM), Angel Flores (CMU), and Langston Lewis (CMU).
Market frame
New Mexico is the captured favorite by 12.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Jack Layne (UNM).
Venue context
New Mexico is the designated home team at University Stadium (NM).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Central Michigan pass protection vs New Mexico pass rush
Central Michigan's pass protection graded 46.1 in 2025 (134th of 136); New Mexico's pass rush graded 70.9 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's pass rush.
New Mexico pass protection vs Central Michigan pass rush
New Mexico's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (113th of 136); Central Michigan's pass rush graded 67.5 (49th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Central Michigan's pass rush.
Central Michigan receiving corps vs New Mexico coverage
Central Michigan's receiving corps graded 67.0 in 2025 (28th of 136); New Mexico's coverage graded 65.2 (60th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Central Michigan's receiving corps.
New Mexico receiving corps vs Central Michigan coverage
New Mexico's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (74th of 136); Central Michigan's coverage graded 66.9 (40th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Central Michigan's coverage. Central Michigan's coverage returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Central Michigan rush offense vs New Mexico run defense
Central Michigan's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (92nd of 136); New Mexico's run defense graded 71.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's run defense.
New Mexico rush offense vs Central Michigan run defense
New Mexico's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (108th of 136); Central Michigan's run defense graded 65.0 (94th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Central Michigan
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel FloresSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 13.23.6–22.0 | — | 407–72 | — | — |
| Langston LewisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 11.83.7–19.0 | — | — | 3.81.1–5.7 | 5214–80 |
| Brock TownsendELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.72.9–17.3 | — | 335–58 | — | — |
| Tommy McIntoshELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.42.9–14.3 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.3 | 4113–63 |
| Jadyn GlasserHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.40.9–16.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Vaughn Bluebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.8–12.9 | — | — | — | 120–22 |
| Marcus Beamonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 6.90.8–11.1 | — | 270–51 | — | — |
| Collin PayneHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.6–9.3 | — | — | — | 307–46 |
| Nasir WilliamsELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 5.51.8–9.3 | — | — | — | 257–43 |
New Mexico
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 17.56.1–27.4 | 17487–246 | — | — | — |
| Troy Omeirebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.23.4–15.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4814–70 |
| James LaubsteinSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.12.4–16.2 | — | 4111–70 | — | — |
| Cade Keithbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.63.4–14.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3812–62 |
| Simon Mapabalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.81.7–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Zhaiel Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–35 |
Central Michigan
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rec yds
- 12
- Rush yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
New Mexico
- Pass yds
- 174
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneQB · UNM | Passing yards | 173.6 | 186.2 | 87.0–245.9 | Shop the line |
| Angel FloresQB · CMU | Rushing yards | 40.0 | 30.8 | 6.5–72.3 | Shop the line |
| Langston LewisWR · CMU | Receiving yards | 52.0 | 39.0 | 14.3–80.4 | Shop the line |
| Troy OmeireWR · UNM | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 36.5 | 14.0–69.8 | Shop the line |
| James LaubsteinQB · UNM | Rushing yards | 41.0 | 38.7 | 10.9–69.6 | Shop the line |
| Brock TownsendRB · CMU | Rushing yards | 33.0 | 22.1 | 5.0–58.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 173.6
- Median
- 186.2
- 20th–80th
- 87.0–245.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.0
- Median
- 30.8
- 20th–80th
- 6.5–72.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.0
- Median
- 39.0
- 20th–80th
- 14.3–80.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.5
- Median
- 36.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–69.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.0
- Median
- 38.7
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–69.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 33.0
- Median
- 22.1
- 20th–80th
- 5.0–58.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated