UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 10:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Hawai'i home
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Captured market
- UNLV -2.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UNLV carries the early number into Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
UNLV travels to Hawai'i at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. The captured market lists UNLV as a 2.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Micah Alejado (HAW), Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV), and Cam Barfield (HAW).
Market frame
UNLV is the captured favorite by 2.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Micah Alejado (HAW).
Venue context
Hawai'i is the designated home team at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UNLV pass protection vs Hawai'i pass rush
UNLV's pass protection graded 68.4 in 2025 (49th of 136); Hawai'i's pass rush graded 71.1 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Hawai'i's pass rush.
Hawai'i pass protection vs UNLV pass rush
Hawai'i's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (107th of 136); UNLV's pass rush graded 68.1 (38th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UNLV's pass rush.
UNLV receiving corps vs Hawai'i coverage
UNLV's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (32nd of 136); Hawai'i's coverage graded 65.1 (62nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UNLV's receiving corps.
Hawai'i receiving corps vs UNLV coverage
Hawai'i's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (90th of 136); UNLV's coverage graded 62.8 (83rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UNLV rush offense vs Hawai'i run defense
UNLV's rush offense graded 82.8 in 2025 (10th of 136); Hawai'i's run defense graded 62.6 (120th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UNLV's rush offense.
Hawai'i rush offense vs UNLV run defense
Hawai'i's rush offense graded 72.5 in 2025 (100th of 136); UNLV's run defense graded 64.7 (103rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UNLV
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai'Den ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.14.2–20.5 | — | 5316–85 | 2.20.0–3.7 | 170–33 |
| Jackson ArnoldSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.92.7–16.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Taeshaun Lyonsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.82.5–13.8 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.3 | 3612–56 |
| Jaylon GloverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–13.6 | — | 4012–68 | — | — |
| Taz ReddicksHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.3–11.1 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3410–56 |
| DeAngelo Irvin Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 8.01.9–11.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 338–49 |
| Kayden McGeeHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.4–10.8 | — | 222–37 | — | — |
| Amorion Walkerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.8–10.5 | — | — | — | 309–41 |
Hawai'i
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.44.6–22.3 | 217119–277 | — | — | — |
| Cam Barfieldbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.03.7–16.4 | — | 3711–61 | 2.10.0–3.5 | 150–28 |
| Pofele AshlockSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.93.9–16.5 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.9 | 5516–79 |
| Audric HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.11.7–10.8 | — | — | — | 298–44 |
| Carson BrownVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.0–10.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.8 | 308–45 |
| Devon Tauaefabalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.01.8–10.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 298–42 |
| DeVon RiceVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.2–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
UNLV
- Rush yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 22
- Rec yds
- 30
Hawai'i
- Pass yds
- 217
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoQB · HAW | Passing yards | 216.6 | 231.6 | 119.3–277.4 | Shop the line |
| Jai'Den ThomasRB · UNLV | Rushing yards | 52.6 | 42.5 | 15.9–84.7 | Shop the line |
| Cam BarfieldRB · HAW | Rushing yards | 37.4 | 27.8 | 10.9–61.3 | Shop the line |
| Pofele AshlockWR · HAW | Receiving yards | 55.2 | 41.7 | 16.3–79.1 | Shop the line |
| Taeshaun LyonsWR · UNLV | Receiving yards | 35.7 | 32.2 | 12.0–55.8 | Shop the line |
| Jaylon GloverRB · UNLV | Rushing yards | 40.3 | 35.0 | 12.2–67.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 216.6
- Median
- 231.6
- 20th–80th
- 119.3–277.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 52.6
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 15.9–84.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 37.4
- Median
- 27.8
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–61.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.2
- Median
- 41.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.3–79.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.7
- Median
- 32.2
- 20th–80th
- 12.0–55.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.3
- Median
- 35.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.2–67.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated