Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- 12:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Navy home
- Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 9 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Memphis visits Navy in Week 12.
Memphis travels to Navy at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 9 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Braxton Woodson (NAVY), Luke Hutchison (NAVY), and Dallan Hayden (MEM).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
9 player distributions are available, led by Braxton Woodson (NAVY).
Venue context
Navy is the designated home team at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Memphis pass protection vs Navy pass rush
Memphis's pass protection graded 70.4 in 2025 (33rd of 136); Navy's pass rush graded 68.1 (37th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Navy pass protection vs Memphis pass rush
Navy's pass protection graded 59.6 in 2025 (108th of 136); Memphis's pass rush graded 61.8 (116th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Memphis receiving corps vs Navy coverage
Memphis's receiving corps graded 66.4 in 2025 (35th of 136); Navy's coverage graded 57.6 (127th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Memphis's receiving corps. Memphis's receiving corps returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Navy receiving corps vs Memphis coverage
Navy's receiving corps graded 67.2 in 2025 (26th of 136); Memphis's coverage graded 60.1 (113th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Navy's receiving corps.
Memphis rush offense vs Navy run defense
Memphis's rush offense graded 78.0 in 2025 (40th of 136); Navy's run defense graded 64.6 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Memphis's rush offense. Memphis's rush offense returns only 0.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Navy rush offense vs Memphis run defense
Navy's rush offense graded 78.0 in 2025 (41st of 136); Memphis's run defense graded 73.8 (11th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Memphis's run defense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Memphis
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallan Haydenbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.52.8–14.4 | — | 4212–72 | — | — |
| Jaylin CarterHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.32.6–14.8 | — | — | 2.10.0–3.6 | 150–24 |
| Hunter TiptonELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.42.8–13.2 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 3913–59 |
| Brady KluseVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.82.4–12.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 339–48 |
| Tychaun ChapmanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.73.0–14.1 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.6 | 4213–58 |
| Terrell Timmons Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 298–41 |
| Manny CoveySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.4–10.9 | — | — | — | 160–20 |
Navy
2 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton WoodsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 15.64.2–24.4 | — | 5512–84 | — | — |
| Luke HutchisonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.6–13.8 | — | — | — | 3710–56 |
Memphis
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 16
Navy
- Rush yds
- 55
- Rec yds
- 37
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton WoodsonQB · NAVY | Rushing yards | 55.0 | 45.9 | 12.4–84.1 | Shop the line |
| Luke HutchisonWR · NAVY | Receiving yards | 37.4 | 27.4 | 10.4–56.2 | Shop the line |
| Dallan HaydenRB · MEM | Rushing yards | 42.0 | 39.8 | 12.2–72.3 | Shop the line |
| Jaylin CarterRB · MEM | Receiving yards | 14.5 | 10.9 | 0.0–23.9 | Shop the line |
| Hunter TiptonTE · MEM | Receiving yards | 38.9 | 30.9 | 13.1–58.7 | Shop the line |
| Brady KluseWR · MEM | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 24.1 | 8.8–48.0 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 55.0
- Median
- 45.9
- 20th–80th
- 12.4–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.4
- Median
- 27.4
- 20th–80th
- 10.4–56.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 42.0
- Median
- 39.8
- 20th–80th
- 12.2–72.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 14.5
- Median
- 10.9
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–23.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.9
- Median
- 30.9
- 20th–80th
- 13.1–58.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 32.5
- Median
- 24.1
- 20th–80th
- 8.8–48.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated