East Carolina Pirates at Army Black Knights college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- 12:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Army home
- Michie Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
East Carolina visits Army in Week 12.
East Carolina travels to Army at Michie Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Cale Hellums (ARMY), Michael Allen (ECU), and Brady Anderson (ARMY).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Cale Hellums (ARMY).
Venue context
Army is the designated home team at Michie Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
East Carolina pass protection vs Army pass rush
East Carolina's pass protection graded 61.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); Army's pass rush graded 61.7 (117th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's pass protection. East Carolina's pass protection returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Army pass protection vs East Carolina pass rush
Army's pass protection graded 60.2 in 2025 (104th of 136); East Carolina's pass rush graded 63.5 (91st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
East Carolina receiving corps vs Army coverage
East Carolina's receiving corps graded 65.9 in 2025 (49th of 136); Army's coverage graded 60.3 (109th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's receiving corps. East Carolina's receiving corps returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Army receiving corps vs East Carolina coverage
Army's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (41st of 136); East Carolina's coverage graded 61.1 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Army's receiving corps.
East Carolina rush offense vs Army run defense
East Carolina's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (67th of 136); Army's run defense graded 64.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's rush offense. East Carolina's rush offense returns only 16.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Army rush offense vs East Carolina run defense
Army's rush offense graded 69.7 in 2025 (121st of 136); East Carolina's run defense graded 66.4 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
East Carolina
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.72.6–18.2 | — | 4110–65 | — | — |
| Brock SpaldingHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.4 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3711–59 |
| Ashton GrayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.8–12.8 | — | 336–52 | — | — |
| Mitch GriffisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.01.3–13.5 | 12215–202 | — | — | — |
| Kanen HamlettVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.2–11.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 289–41 |
| TJ Engleman Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.4–11.2 | — | 348–58 | — | — |
| Landon SidesHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.8 | — | — | — | 318–45 |
| Ray Ray Joseph Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.9–9.8 | — | — | — | 277–42 |
| Kyler Pearsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.61.1–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
Army
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale HellumsHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 18.47.0–27.9 | — | 8534–119 | — | — |
| Brady Andersonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.6–13.7 | — | — | — | 4414–72 |
| Parker PoloskeySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.1–10.7 | — | — | — | 3610–57 |
| Jake RendinaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.1–10.9 | — | 304–49 | — | — |
East Carolina
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 122
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
Army
- Rush yds
- 85
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale HellumsQB · ARMY | Rushing yards | 85.2 | 70.1 | 33.7–118.5 | Shop the line |
| Michael AllenRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 40.9 | 38.1 | 9.5–64.5 | Shop the line |
| Brady AndersonWR · ARMY | Receiving yards | 44.4 | 35.5 | 13.8–72.0 | Shop the line |
| Brock SpaldingWR · ECU | Receiving yards | 37.3 | 31.0 | 11.3–59.1 | Shop the line |
| Ashton GrayRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 32.8 | 25.9 | 5.6–52.1 | Shop the line |
| Mitch GriffisQB · ECU | Passing yards | 122.3 | 136.3 | 15.3–201.9 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 85.2
- Median
- 70.1
- 20th–80th
- 33.7–118.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.9
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–64.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 44.4
- Median
- 35.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.8–72.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.3
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–59.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 32.8
- Median
- 25.9
- 20th–80th
- 5.6–52.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 122.3
- Median
- 136.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.3–201.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated