Ball State Cardinals at Ohio State Buckeyes college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 12:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Ohio State home
- Ohio Stadium
- Captured market
- OSU -50.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Ohio State carries the early number into Ohio Stadium.
Ball State travels to Ohio State at Ohio Stadium. The captured market lists Ohio State as a 50.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Julian Sayin (OSU), Bo Jackson (OSU), and Jeremiah Smith (OSU).
Market frame
Ohio State is the captured favorite by 50.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Julian Sayin (OSU).
Venue context
Ohio State is the designated home team at Ohio Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Ball State pass protection vs Ohio State pass rush
Ball State's pass protection graded 58.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Ohio State's pass rush graded 67.5 (50th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ohio State's pass rush.
Ohio State pass protection vs Ball State pass rush
Ohio State's pass protection graded 71.5 in 2025 (24th of 136); Ball State's pass rush graded 71.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Ball State's pass rush. Ball State's pass rush returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Ball State receiving corps vs Ohio State coverage
Ball State's receiving corps graded 60.0 in 2025 (125th of 136); Ohio State's coverage graded 72.6 (5th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ohio State's coverage.
Ohio State receiving corps vs Ball State coverage
Ohio State's receiving corps graded 74.1 in 2025 (3rd of 136); Ball State's coverage graded 57.6 (128th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ohio State's receiving corps.
Ball State rush offense vs Ohio State run defense
Ball State's rush offense graded 67.1 in 2025 (131st of 136); Ohio State's run defense graded 75.3 (4th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ohio State's run defense.
Ohio State rush offense vs Ball State run defense
Ohio State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (45th of 136); Ball State's run defense graded 62.8 (118th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ohio State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Ball State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan HamiltonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 5.21.9–7.8 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.8 | 299–43 |
| TJ HortonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 4.41.7–7.2 | — | — | 1.70.0–3.1 | — |
| Corey Thompson Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 3.91.4–6.1 | — | — | — | 216–37 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.41.4–7.4 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.8 | 227–36 |
| Jalen BondsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 4.11.4–7.3 | — | 265–52 | — | 1-1–4 |
| Isaiah ThackerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 3.50.8–5.8 | — | — | — | — |
Ohio State
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian SayinVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.76.9–27.1 | 210113–284 | — | — | — |
| Bo JacksonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 15.86.3–24.0 | — | 7425–107 | 1.50.9–2.9 | 160–32 |
| Jeremiah SmithELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.95.7–23.5 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 6224–95 |
| Devin McCuinELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.44.9–22.4 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.3 | 5920–88 |
| Brandon Innissbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.02.6–14.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Hunter Welcingbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.32.8–13.2 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.7 | 4112–62 |
| Mason WilliamsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 9.02.4–12.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Ja'Kobi JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.92.1–12.2 | — | 3911–63 | — | — |
| Kyle ParkerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.32.2–11.2 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | 309–48 |
| Justyn MartinHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.50.9–15.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Bennett Christianbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.91.6–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| David AdolphELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.9–10.9 | — | — | — | 308–49 |
Ball State
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 22
- Rush yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 1
Ohio State
- Pass yds
- 210
- Rush yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 1.5
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 62
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 59
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian SayinQB · OSU | Passing yards | 210.1 | 226.4 | 112.5–283.7 | Shop the line |
| Bo JacksonRB · OSU | Rushing yards | 74.0 | 61.2 | 24.9–107.2 | Shop the line |
| Jeremiah SmithWR · OSU | Receiving yards | 62.4 | 53.7 | 24.2–95.1 | Shop the line |
| Devin McCuinWR · OSU | Receiving yards | 59.0 | 45.8 | 20.0–88.3 | Shop the line |
| Hunter WelcingTE · OSU | Receiving yards | 40.6 | 31.7 | 11.7–61.8 | Shop the line |
| Ja'Kobi JacksonRB · OSU | Rushing yards | 38.8 | 29.1 | 10.9–63.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 210.1
- Median
- 226.4
- 20th–80th
- 112.5–283.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 74.0
- Median
- 61.2
- 20th–80th
- 24.9–107.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.4
- Median
- 53.7
- 20th–80th
- 24.2–95.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.0
- Median
- 45.8
- 20th–80th
- 20.0–88.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 40.6
- Median
- 31.7
- 20th–80th
- 11.7–61.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.8
- Median
- 29.1
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–63.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated