Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Missouri home
- Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 23 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida visits Missouri in Week 5.
Florida travels to Missouri at Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 23 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jadan Baugh (FLA), Ahmad Hardy (MIZ), and London Montgomery (FLA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
23 player distributions are available, led by Jadan Baugh (FLA).
Venue context
Missouri is the designated home team at Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida pass protection vs Missouri pass rush
Florida's pass protection graded 68.2 in 2025 (50th of 136); Missouri's pass rush graded 71.5 (7th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's pass rush.
Missouri pass protection vs Florida pass rush
Missouri's pass protection graded 76.8 in 2025 (4th of 136); Florida's pass rush graded 62.3 (106th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's pass protection.
Florida receiving corps vs Missouri coverage
Florida's receiving corps graded 62.6 in 2025 (101st of 136); Missouri's coverage graded 66.9 (38th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's coverage. Missouri's coverage returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Missouri receiving corps vs Florida coverage
Missouri's receiving corps graded 64.9 in 2025 (62nd of 136); Florida's coverage graded 62.3 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri's receiving corps.
Florida rush offense vs Missouri run defense
Florida's rush offense graded 82.5 in 2025 (11th of 136); Missouri's run defense graded 74.3 (8th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Missouri rush offense vs Florida run defense
Missouri's rush offense graded 85.1 in 2025 (2nd of 136); Florida's run defense graded 69.6 (39th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida
14 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadan BaughELITE · Tier 1 | RB | 18.27.5–25.1 | — | 8234–115 | 2.20.9–4.0 | 170–23 |
| London MontgomeryHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 13.84.2–21.5 | — | 6117–92 | — | — |
| Eric Singleton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.94.2–17.9 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5216–71 |
| Evan PryorELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.93.0–15.2 | — | 379–59 | 1.90.9–3.4 | 140–20 |
| Dallas Wilsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.22.4–14.8 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3912–57 |
| Vernell Brown IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.42.7–15.1 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.8 | 4616–67 |
| Aaron Philobalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.11.1–15.4 | 12018–209 | 21-1–38 | — | — |
| Micah Mays Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.7–13.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3911–56 |
| Luke Harpringbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.0–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 329–48 |
| Bailey StocktonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–48 |
| Kahleil JacksonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.9–10.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 308–45 |
| Amir JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.5–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| TJ AbramsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.71.9–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 319–41 |
| Lacota DippreELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.9–11.1 | — | — | — | 318–46 |
Missouri
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad HardyELITE · Tier 4 | RB | 17.77.1–23.8 | — | 8741–122 | — | — |
| Jamal RobertsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.73.3–16.5 | — | 4817–74 | — | — |
| Matt ZollersVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.11.5–18.0 | 14929–230 | — | — | — |
| Nick EversHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.81.7–15.9 | — | 25-1–47 | — | — |
| Donovan OlugbodeVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.0–15.0 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.0 | 4413–62 |
| Cayden LeeELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.3 | 4614–66 |
| Caleb Goodiebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.62.6–12.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 4211–59 |
| Austin SimmonsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.81.4–15.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Jude JamesELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.1–12.7 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.4 | 309–47 |
Florida
- Rush yds
- 82
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 17
- Rush yds
- 61
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 46
- Pass yds
- 120
- Rush yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 31
Missouri
- Rush yds
- 87
- Rush yds
- 48
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadan BaughRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 82.0 | 72.7 | 33.7–114.7 | Shop the line |
| Ahmad HardyRB · MIZ | Rushing yards | 86.9 | 76.4 | 40.9–122.1 | Shop the line |
| London MontgomeryRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 61.2 | 54.1 | 16.8–91.5 | Shop the line |
| Eric Singleton Jr.WR · FLA | Receiving yards | 51.8 | 44.6 | 16.3–71.1 | Shop the line |
| Jamal RobertsRB · MIZ | Rushing yards | 47.7 | 51.4 | 16.7–73.7 | Shop the line |
| Matt ZollersQB · MIZ | Passing yards | 149.0 | 164.1 | 29.0–229.7 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 82.0
- Median
- 72.7
- 20th–80th
- 33.7–114.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 86.9
- Median
- 76.4
- 20th–80th
- 40.9–122.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 61.2
- Median
- 54.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.8–91.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.8
- Median
- 44.6
- 20th–80th
- 16.3–71.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.7
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 16.7–73.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.0
- Median
- 164.1
- 20th–80th
- 29.0–229.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated