Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Mississippi State home
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Alabama visits Mississippi State in Week 5.
Alabama travels to Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kamario Taylor (MSST), Anthony Evans III (MSST), and AJ Swann (MSST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Kamario Taylor (MSST).
Venue context
Mississippi State is the designated home team at Davis Wade Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Alabama pass protection vs Mississippi State pass rush
Alabama's pass protection graded 76.0 in 2025 (7th of 136); Mississippi State's pass rush graded 60.8 (124th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's pass protection. Alabama's pass protection returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Mississippi State pass protection vs Alabama pass rush
Mississippi State's pass protection graded 65.8 in 2025 (70th of 136); Alabama's pass rush graded 60.6 (126th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Mississippi State's pass protection. Mississippi State's pass protection returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Alabama receiving corps vs Mississippi State coverage
Alabama's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Mississippi State's coverage graded 62.6 (86th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's receiving corps.
Mississippi State receiving corps vs Alabama coverage
Mississippi State's receiving corps graded 62.4 in 2025 (103rd of 136); Alabama's coverage graded 73.4 (3rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's coverage.
Alabama rush offense vs Mississippi State run defense
Alabama's rush offense graded 71.0 in 2025 (111th of 136); Mississippi State's run defense graded 61.8 (126th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Alabama's rush offense.
Mississippi State rush offense vs Alabama run defense
Mississippi State's rush offense graded 75.6 in 2025 (64th of 136); Alabama's run defense graded 71.5 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Alabama
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hillbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.03.5–16.7 | — | 316–52 | 2.50.9–4.3 | 170–29 |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.8–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 5415–75 |
| Noah Rogersbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.33.0–12.6 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3810–55 |
| Lotzeir Brooksbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.32.3–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | — |
| Austin Mackbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 7.11.0–12.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Rico ScottVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.62.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Kaleb EdwardsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.7–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.9 | 278–35 |
| Kevin RileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.3–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh FordHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
Mississippi State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 21.86.3–30.3 | 17787–238 | 6216–94 | — | — |
| Anthony Evans IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 13.74.8–21.3 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5520–85 |
| AJ Swannbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.72.7–20.9 | 17687–240 | — | — | — |
| Jaden RashadaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.22.5–19.1 | 14349–231 | — | — | — |
| Fluff BothwellELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 11.14.0–16.5 | — | 4815–79 | — | — |
| Marquis JohnsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.62.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 3911–56 |
| Sam WestHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.4–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sanfrisco Mageebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
Alabama
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 27
Mississippi State
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 62
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 176
- Pass yds
- 143
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorQB · MSST | Passing yards | 176.6 | 182.4 | 87.0–237.9 | Shop the line |
| Anthony Evans IIIWR · MSST | Receiving yards | 55.4 | 42.5 | 19.5–85.1 | Shop the line |
| AJ SwannQB · MSST | Passing yards | 176.0 | 159.6 | 87.4–240.2 | Shop the line |
| Daniel HillRB · ALA | Rushing yards | 31.1 | 24.9 | 6.3–52.0 | Shop the line |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 39.7 | 15.2–74.6 | Shop the line |
| Jaden RashadaQB · MSST | Passing yards | 143.1 | 162.9 | 48.6–230.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.6
- Median
- 182.4
- 20th–80th
- 87.0–237.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.4
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.5–85.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.0
- Median
- 159.6
- 20th–80th
- 87.4–240.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 31.1
- Median
- 24.9
- 20th–80th
- 6.3–52.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 39.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–74.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.1
- Median
- 162.9
- 20th–80th
- 48.6–230.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated