UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Mississippi State home
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Captured market
- MSST -29.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Mississippi State carries the early number into Davis Wade Stadium.
UL Monroe travels to Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium. The captured market lists Mississippi State as a 29.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kamario Taylor (MSST), Anthony Evans III (MSST), and AJ Swann (MSST).
Market frame
Mississippi State is the captured favorite by 29.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Kamario Taylor (MSST).
Venue context
Mississippi State is the designated home team at Davis Wade Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UL Monroe pass protection vs Mississippi State pass rush
UL Monroe's pass protection graded 76.8 in 2025 (5th of 136); Mississippi State's pass rush graded 60.8 (124th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UL Monroe's pass protection.
Mississippi State pass protection vs UL Monroe pass rush
Mississippi State's pass protection graded 65.8 in 2025 (70th of 136); UL Monroe's pass rush graded 65.5 (70th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
UL Monroe receiving corps vs Mississippi State coverage
UL Monroe's receiving corps graded 63.9 in 2025 (79th of 136); Mississippi State's coverage graded 62.6 (86th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Mississippi State receiving corps vs UL Monroe coverage
Mississippi State's receiving corps graded 62.4 in 2025 (103rd of 136); UL Monroe's coverage graded 62.3 (93rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UL Monroe rush offense vs Mississippi State run defense
UL Monroe's rush offense graded 76.9 in 2025 (53rd of 136); Mississippi State's run defense graded 61.8 (126th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UL Monroe's rush offense. UL Monroe's rush offense returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Mississippi State rush offense vs UL Monroe run defense
Mississippi State's rush offense graded 75.6 in 2025 (64th of 136); UL Monroe's run defense graded 67.0 (64th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UL Monroe
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ArmentaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.13.0–16.3 | 13060–214 | — | — | — |
| Nic TrujilloELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.53.3–13.6 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.3 | 3813–61 |
| Javon CampbellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 4.91.5–7.1 | — | — | — | 226–39 |
| Derrick JamesonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.20.9–8.0 | — | 254–50 | — | — |
| JP Coulterbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.01.6–7.9 | — | — | — | 267–44 |
| Brandon BuckhaulterVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.91.3–7.9 | — | — | — | 255–33 |
| Bryce Andersonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 4.61.5–7.5 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | — |
| Don Chaneybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.01.1–8.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Landon GravesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 5.31.0–9.3 | — | — | — | — |
Mississippi State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 23.68.0–32.5 | 195103–265 | 6018–99 | — | — |
| Anthony Evans IIIELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 14.85.0–22.1 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.5 | 5620–89 |
| AJ SwannVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.93.6–23.9 | 19198–263 | — | — | — |
| Jaden RashadaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 11.72.9–22.0 | 15856–251 | — | — | — |
| Fluff BothwellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 12.34.7–17.4 | — | 5219–84 | — | — |
| Marquis JohnsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.62.9–14.9 | — | — | 3.31.0–4.7 | 3912–61 |
| Sam WestHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sanfrisco MageeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.8–10.4 | — | — | — | 267–45 |
UL Monroe
- Pass yds
- 130
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 22
- Rush yds
- 25
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 2.3
Mississippi State
- Pass yds
- 195
- Rush yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 56
- Pass yds
- 191
- Pass yds
- 158
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorQB · MSST | Passing yards | 195.3 | 197.3 | 102.8–264.5 | Shop the line |
| Anthony Evans IIIWR · MSST | Receiving yards | 55.9 | 44.3 | 20.2–89.2 | Shop the line |
| AJ SwannQB · MSST | Passing yards | 191.1 | 184.8 | 98.2–262.7 | Shop the line |
| Jaden RashadaQB · MSST | Passing yards | 158.1 | 187.5 | 56.2–251.4 | Shop the line |
| Fluff BothwellRB · MSST | Rushing yards | 51.6 | 49.8 | 19.3–84.1 | Shop the line |
| Marquis JohnsonWR · MSST | Receiving yards | 38.7 | 31.6 | 11.9–60.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 195.3
- Median
- 197.3
- 20th–80th
- 102.8–264.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.9
- Median
- 44.3
- 20th–80th
- 20.2–89.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 191.1
- Median
- 184.8
- 20th–80th
- 98.2–262.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 158.1
- Median
- 187.5
- 20th–80th
- 56.2–251.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.6
- Median
- 49.8
- 20th–80th
- 19.3–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.7
- Median
- 31.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.9–60.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated