Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 1
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- New Mexico State home
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Western Kentucky visits New Mexico State in Week 5.
Western Kentucky travels to New Mexico State at Aggie Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU), Adam Damante (NMSU), and TK King (NMSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU).
Venue context
New Mexico State is the designated home team at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Western Kentucky pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
Western Kentucky's pass protection graded 70.6 in 2025 (30th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico State pass protection vs Western Kentucky pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Western Kentucky's pass rush graded 64.0 (84th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Western Kentucky's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Western Kentucky receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
Western Kentucky's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (72nd of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs Western Kentucky coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Western Kentucky's coverage graded 65.9 (48th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's coverage. Western Kentucky's coverage returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Western Kentucky rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
Western Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.0 in 2025 (85th of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico State rush offense vs Western Kentucky run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Western Kentucky's run defense graded 65.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's run defense. Western Kentucky's run defense returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Western Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 16.96.5–26.6 | 214124–265 | — | — | — |
| Ajay AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.65.2–21.9 | — | 6519–94 | — | — |
| K.D. HutchinsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.64.1–20.0 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.0 | 5316–74 |
| Moussa BarrySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.7–13.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3411–55 |
| Qua'Vez Humphreysbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.32.4–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | 3510–53 |
| Jyziah RockwellVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.8–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–46 |
| Zion TaylorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.9–10.4 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | 297–35 |
| Quincy BurroughsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–34 |
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 13.34.7–21.7 | 189107–277 | — | — | — |
| TK KingELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 14.45.1–20.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.4 | 5621–83 |
| Dijon Stanleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.03.3–16.0 | — | 3510–56 | 1.90.0–3.4 | 160–27 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.7–13.6 | — | — | — | 4012–58 |
| Brodie Malone-BradfordVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.6–13.6 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3211–48 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.8–12.2 | — | 315–53 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | — |
| Myles Libmanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
Western Kentucky
- Pass yds
- 214
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
New Mexico State
- Pass yds
- 189
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB · WKU | Passing yards | 214.0 | 217.9 | 124.4–264.9 | Shop the line |
| Adam DamanteQB · NMSU | Passing yards | 189.4 | 203.0 | 107.0–276.8 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 56.3 | 44.4 | 20.9–82.9 | Shop the line |
| Ajay AllenRB · WKU | Rushing yards | 65.0 | 57.0 | 18.9–93.8 | Shop the line |
| K.D. HutchinsonWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 38.0 | 15.8–73.6 | Shop the line |
| Dijon StanleyRB · NMSU | Rushing yards | 34.5 | 28.7 | 9.7–55.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 214.0
- Median
- 217.9
- 20th–80th
- 124.4–264.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 189.4
- Median
- 203.0
- 20th–80th
- 107.0–276.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.3
- Median
- 44.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.9–82.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.0
- Median
- 57.0
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–93.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.5
- Median
- 38.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–73.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.5
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–55.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated