Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14
- 3:30 PM EST
- Venue
- Western Kentucky home
- Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Jacksonville State visits Western Kentucky in Week 11.
Jacksonville State travels to Western Kentucky at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Caden Creel (JXST), Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU), and Ajay Allen (WKU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Caden Creel (JXST).
Venue context
Western Kentucky is the designated home team at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Jacksonville State pass protection vs Western Kentucky pass rush
Jacksonville State's pass protection graded 69.2 in 2025 (46th of 136); Western Kentucky's pass rush graded 64.0 (84th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Jacksonville State's pass protection.
Western Kentucky pass protection vs Jacksonville State pass rush
Western Kentucky's pass protection graded 70.6 in 2025 (30th of 136); Jacksonville State's pass rush graded 65.2 (72nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's pass protection. Western Kentucky's pass protection returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Jacksonville State receiving corps vs Western Kentucky coverage
Jacksonville State's receiving corps graded 59.6 in 2025 (129th of 136); Western Kentucky's coverage graded 65.9 (48th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's coverage. Western Kentucky's coverage returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Western Kentucky receiving corps vs Jacksonville State coverage
Western Kentucky's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Jacksonville State's coverage graded 63.2 (78th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Jacksonville State rush offense vs Western Kentucky run defense
Jacksonville State's rush offense graded 80.0 in 2025 (22nd of 136); Western Kentucky's run defense graded 65.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Jacksonville State's rush offense.
Western Kentucky rush offense vs Jacksonville State run defense
Western Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.0 in 2025 (85th of 136); Jacksonville State's run defense graded 68.5 (49th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Jacksonville State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Jacksonville State
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 19.26.8–29.6 | 16885–240 | 6419–100 | — | — |
| Deondre Johnsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.34.2–20.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.3 | 5617–81 |
| Ronnel JohnsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.62.5–11.4 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 379–54 |
| Jalen LikelySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.71.4–10.2 | — | 221–29 | — | — |
Western Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 16.86.5–26.6 | 214124–265 | — | — | — |
| Ajay AllenVOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.55.2–21.9 | — | 6519–94 | — | — |
| K.D. HutchinsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.64.1–20.0 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.0 | 5316–74 |
| Moussa BarrySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–13.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3411–55 |
| Qua'Vez Humphreysbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.4–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | 3510–53 |
| Jyziah RockwellVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.8–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–46 |
| Zion TaylorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–10.4 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | 297–35 |
| Quincy BurroughsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–34 |
Jacksonville State
- Pass yds
- 168
- Rush yds
- 64
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 22
Western Kentucky
- Pass yds
- 214
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB · JXST | Passing yards | 167.7 | 163.6 | 85.3–239.5 | Shop the line |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB · WKU | Passing yards | 214.0 | 217.9 | 124.4–264.9 | Shop the line |
| Ajay AllenRB · WKU | Rushing yards | 65.3 | 57.0 | 18.9–93.8 | Shop the line |
| Deondre JohnsonWR · JXST | Receiving yards | 55.6 | 40.7 | 16.8–81.0 | Shop the line |
| K.D. HutchinsonWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 38.0 | 15.8–73.6 | Shop the line |
| Moussa BarryWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 34.2 | 28.3 | 11.2–55.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 167.7
- Median
- 163.6
- 20th–80th
- 85.3–239.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 214.0
- Median
- 217.9
- 20th–80th
- 124.4–264.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.3
- Median
- 57.0
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–93.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.6
- Median
- 40.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.8–81.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.5
- Median
- 38.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–73.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.2
- Median
- 28.3
- 20th–80th
- 11.2–55.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated