Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red Wolves college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Arkansas State home
- Centennial Bank Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Kennesaw State visits Arkansas State in Week 4.
Kennesaw State travels to Arkansas State at Centennial Bank Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Rickie Collins (KENN), Kenyon Clay (ARST), and Chauncy Cobb (ARST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Rickie Collins (KENN).
Venue context
Arkansas State is the designated home team at Centennial Bank Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Kennesaw State pass protection vs Arkansas State pass rush
Kennesaw State's pass protection graded 63.1 in 2025 (90th of 136); Arkansas State's pass rush graded 66.2 (59th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas State's pass rush. Arkansas State's pass rush returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State pass protection vs Kennesaw State pass rush
Arkansas State's pass protection graded 70.0 in 2025 (35th of 136); Kennesaw State's pass rush graded 67.5 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas State's pass protection.
Kennesaw State receiving corps vs Arkansas State coverage
Kennesaw State's receiving corps graded 66.4 in 2025 (36th of 136); Arkansas State's coverage graded 61.4 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kennesaw State's receiving corps. Kennesaw State's receiving corps returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State receiving corps vs Kennesaw State coverage
Arkansas State's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (80th of 136); Kennesaw State's coverage graded 64.5 (70th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Kennesaw State rush offense vs Arkansas State run defense
Kennesaw State's rush offense graded 74.3 in 2025 (81st of 136); Arkansas State's run defense graded 64.7 (104th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Kennesaw State's rush offense. Kennesaw State's rush offense returns only 1.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State rush offense vs Kennesaw State run defense
Arkansas State's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (109th of 136); Kennesaw State's run defense graded 66.8 (69th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kennesaw State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Kennesaw State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Collinsbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.73.1–21.0 | 14653–230 | 26-2–50 | — | — |
| Zion Bookerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.13.5–17.1 | — | — | 3.91.1–6.0 | 4214–68 |
| Davis BrysonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.51.8–11.6 | — | — | 2.10.8–4.0 | 203–25 |
| Reed JesiolowskiSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.0–10.7 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 349–48 |
| Dylan Garybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.8–9.8 | — | — | — | 278–41 |
| Navelle DeanELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.6–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Gerard Bullock Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.72.0–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | — |
Arkansas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 12.83.9–20.4 | — | 5014–73 | 2.20.9–3.6 | 190–24 |
| Chauncy CobbVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.13.7–18.0 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.5 | 5318–76 |
| Devin SpencerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.63.1–14.5 | — | 4111–66 | 1.80.0–3.3 | 140–18 |
| Hunter SummersELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.43.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 4114–62 |
| Jaylen BonelliHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.1–11.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 309–41 |
| Tyler LittleVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.81.8–11.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 288–38 |
Kennesaw State
- Pass yds
- 146
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 20
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.5
Arkansas State
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie CollinsQB · KENN | Passing yards | 145.9 | 170.8 | 52.7–229.7 | Shop the line |
| Kenyon ClayRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 50.2 | 44.2 | 14.0–72.6 | Shop the line |
| Chauncy CobbWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 53.4 | 41.3 | 18.1–76.0 | Shop the line |
| Zion BookerWR · KENN | Receiving yards | 42.1 | 33.1 | 13.7–68.4 | Shop the line |
| Devin SpencerRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 41.3 | 37.2 | 10.9–65.5 | Shop the line |
| Hunter SummersWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 41.4 | 32.5 | 13.9–62.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 145.9
- Median
- 170.8
- 20th–80th
- 52.7–229.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.2
- Median
- 44.2
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–72.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.4
- Median
- 41.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.1–76.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.1
- Median
- 33.1
- 20th–80th
- 13.7–68.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.3
- Median
- 37.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–65.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 41.4
- Median
- 32.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–62.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated