App State Mountaineers at South Alabama Jaguars college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 27
- 3:00 PM EST
- Venue
- South Alabama home
- Hancock Whitney Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
App State visits South Alabama in Week 13.
App State travels to South Alabama at Hancock Whitney Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaquari Lewis (APP), Bishop Davenport (USA), and Keenan Phillips (USA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Jaquari Lewis (APP).
Venue context
South Alabama is the designated home team at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
App State pass protection vs South Alabama pass rush
App State's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (106th of 136); South Alabama's pass rush graded 61.3 (120th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
South Alabama pass protection vs App State pass rush
South Alabama's pass protection graded 64.8 in 2025 (80th of 136); App State's pass rush graded 70.7 (11th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for App State's pass rush.
App State receiving corps vs South Alabama coverage
App State's receiving corps graded 63.4 in 2025 (84th of 136); South Alabama's coverage graded 64.3 (72nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
South Alabama receiving corps vs App State coverage
South Alabama's receiving corps graded 64.2 in 2025 (76th of 136); App State's coverage graded 62.1 (95th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Alabama's receiving corps.
App State rush offense vs South Alabama run defense
App State's rush offense graded 76.8 in 2025 (54th of 136); South Alabama's run defense graded 61.2 (131st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for App State's rush offense.
South Alabama rush offense vs App State run defense
South Alabama's rush offense graded 85.3 in 2025 (1st of 136); App State's run defense graded 70.9 (29th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Alabama's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
App State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquari Lewisbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 16.46.0–23.4 | — | 6821–104 | 2.20.9–4.1 | 190–32 |
| Izayah CummingsELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 10.43.3–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.6 | 4415–64 |
| David Larkinsbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 10.23.2–15.3 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.9 | 3711–54 |
| Rashod DubinionELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.82.7–14.7 | — | 379–64 | — | — |
| Kanye Robertsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.4–14.1 | — | 4511–67 | — | — |
| Sam MbakeELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.53.1–15.7 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.7 | 3913–56 |
| Dalton StromanVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.6–13.2 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.4 | 3811–57 |
| Alex SanchezSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–9.9 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
| William Fowlesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.7–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
South Alabama
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop DavenportHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 15.94.7–25.9 | 15994–237 | 272–57 | — | — |
| Keenan Phillipsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.93.5–17.1 | — | 4612–69 | — | — |
| Anthony EagerVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.22.8–14.3 | — | — | 3.31.1–5.3 | 4312–62 |
| Brendan Jenkinsbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.2–11.4 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 329–49 |
| PJ MartinHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 8.01.7–13.5 | — | 359–57 | — | — |
| Micah WoodsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 287–40 |
| Rod GibbsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.01.7–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
App State
- Rush yds
- 68
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
South Alabama
- Pass yds
- 159
- Rush yds
- 27
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquari LewisRB · APP | Rushing yards | 67.5 | 59.1 | 20.7–104.1 | Shop the line |
| Bishop DavenportQB · USA | Passing yards | 159.2 | 172.4 | 93.6–236.7 | Shop the line |
| Keenan PhillipsRB · USA | Rushing yards | 45.7 | 46.7 | 11.9–69.0 | Shop the line |
| Izayah CummingsTE · APP | Receiving yards | 44.0 | 35.3 | 15.2–64.1 | Shop the line |
| David LarkinsTE · APP | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 29.0 | 11.1–53.6 | Shop the line |
| Anthony EagerWR · USA | Receiving yards | 42.8 | 30.1 | 12.3–62.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.5
- Median
- 59.1
- 20th–80th
- 20.7–104.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 159.2
- Median
- 172.4
- 20th–80th
- 93.6–236.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 45.7
- Median
- 46.7
- 20th–80th
- 11.9–69.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 44.0
- Median
- 35.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–64.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.5
- Median
- 29.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.1–53.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.8
- Median
- 30.1
- 20th–80th
- 12.3–62.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated