Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 4:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Liberty home
- Williams Stadium (VA)
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Ball State visits Liberty in Week 3.
Ball State travels to Liberty at Williams Stadium (VA). No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ethan Vasko (LIB), Makai Jackson (LIB), and Jaylen Henderson (LIB).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Ethan Vasko (LIB).
Venue context
Liberty is the designated home team at Williams Stadium (VA).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Ball State pass protection vs Liberty pass rush
Ball State's pass protection graded 58.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Liberty's pass rush graded 63.2 (95th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Liberty's pass rush.
Liberty pass protection vs Ball State pass rush
Liberty's pass protection graded 63.5 in 2025 (88th of 136); Ball State's pass rush graded 71.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ball State's pass rush. Ball State's pass rush returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Ball State receiving corps vs Liberty coverage
Ball State's receiving corps graded 60.0 in 2025 (125th of 136); Liberty's coverage graded 66.9 (39th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Liberty's coverage. Liberty's coverage returns only 20.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Liberty receiving corps vs Ball State coverage
Liberty's receiving corps graded 65.8 in 2025 (52nd of 136); Ball State's coverage graded 57.6 (128th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Liberty's receiving corps. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Ball State rush offense vs Liberty run defense
Ball State's rush offense graded 67.1 in 2025 (131st of 136); Liberty's run defense graded 64.0 (112th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Liberty's run defense.
Liberty rush offense vs Ball State run defense
Liberty's rush offense graded 76.6 in 2025 (56th of 136); Ball State's run defense graded 62.8 (118th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Liberty's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Ball State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Hortonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.1–12.4 | — | — | 1.80.0–3.1 | — |
| Donovan HamiltonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.7 | 3911–56 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.1–11.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 309–44 |
| Jalen BondsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.22.0–12.1 | — | 356–56 | — | 11-0–12 |
| Corey Thompson Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.9–10.1 | — | — | — | 298–44 |
| Isaiah ThackerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.1–10.4 | — | — | — | — |
Liberty
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan VaskoVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 12.75.1–21.6 | 16082–248 | — | — | — |
| Makai JacksonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.34.9–21.2 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.7 | 6420–92 |
| Jaylen Hendersonbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 10.82.2–19.6 | — | 323–61 | — | — |
| Jamari PersonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.62.6–11.1 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.5 | 389–56 |
| Justin MarshallHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.7–11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Kam DavisELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.4–11.6 | — | — | — | 140–18 |
| Caleb RyanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.21.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 307–47 |
| Kanye UdohHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.4–11.4 | — | 304–49 | — | — |
| Jaylon ColemanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.7–11.0 | — | — | 2.00.0–3.7 | 221–31 |
Ball State
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 11
- Rec yds
- 29
Liberty
- Pass yds
- 160
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 64
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 22
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan VaskoQB · LIB | Passing yards | 160.1 | 195.2 | 82.2–247.5 | Shop the line |
| Makai JacksonWR · LIB | Receiving yards | 63.7 | 48.9 | 20.4–92.1 | Shop the line |
| Jaylen HendersonQB · LIB | Rushing yards | 32.1 | 22.5 | 2.7–60.6 | Shop the line |
| TJ HortonRB · BALL | Receptions | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.0–3.1 | Shop the line |
| Donovan HamiltonWR · BALL | Receiving yards | 38.6 | 28.9 | 11.4–55.7 | Shop the line |
| Jabari Smith Jr.WR · BALL | Receiving yards | 30.3 | 22.0 | 9.1–43.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 160.1
- Median
- 195.2
- 20th–80th
- 82.2–247.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.7
- Median
- 48.9
- 20th–80th
- 20.4–92.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 32.1
- Median
- 22.5
- 20th–80th
- 2.7–60.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 1.8
- Median
- 1.0
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–3.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.6
- Median
- 28.9
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–55.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 30.3
- Median
- 22.0
- 20th–80th
- 9.1–43.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated