New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- New Mexico State home
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico visits New Mexico State in Week 4.
New Mexico travels to New Mexico State at Aggie Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Adam Damante (NMSU), Jack Layne (UNM), and TK King (NMSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Adam Damante (NMSU).
Venue context
New Mexico State is the designated home team at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
New Mexico's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (113th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico State's pass rush.
New Mexico State pass protection vs New Mexico pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); New Mexico's pass rush graded 70.9 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's pass rush.
New Mexico receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
New Mexico's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (74th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs New Mexico coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); New Mexico's coverage graded 65.2 (60th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico's coverage.
New Mexico rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
New Mexico's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (108th of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico State's run defense.
New Mexico State rush offense vs New Mexico run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); New Mexico's run defense graded 71.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 16.15.5–26.2 | 16679–234 | — | — | — |
| Troy Omeirebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.63.3–15.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4814–66 |
| James LaubsteinSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.12.2–16.2 | — | 409–64 | — | — |
| Cade Keithbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.33.2–14.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3912–59 |
| Simon MapaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Zhaiel Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 13.34.7–21.7 | 189107–277 | — | — | — |
| TK KingELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.45.1–20.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.4 | 5621–83 |
| Dijon Stanleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.03.3–16.0 | — | 3510–56 | 1.90.0–3.4 | 160–27 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.7–13.6 | — | — | — | 4012–58 |
| Brodie Malone-BradfordELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.6–13.6 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3211–48 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.8–12.2 | — | 315–53 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | — |
| Myles Libmanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
New Mexico
- Pass yds
- 166
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
New Mexico State
- Pass yds
- 189
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteQB · NMSU | Passing yards | 189.4 | 203.0 | 107.0–276.8 | Shop the line |
| Jack LayneQB · UNM | Passing yards | 165.9 | 177.8 | 78.6–234.3 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 56.3 | 44.4 | 20.9–82.9 | Shop the line |
| Dijon StanleyRB · NMSU | Rushing yards | 34.5 | 28.7 | 9.7–55.6 | Shop the line |
| Troy OmeireWR · UNM | Receiving yards | 47.8 | 36.1 | 14.0–65.8 | Shop the line |
| James LaubsteinQB · UNM | Rushing yards | 39.8 | 38.9 | 9.4–64.4 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 189.4
- Median
- 203.0
- 20th–80th
- 107.0–276.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 165.9
- Median
- 177.8
- 20th–80th
- 78.6–234.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.3
- Median
- 44.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.9–82.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.5
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–55.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.8
- Median
- 36.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–65.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 39.8
- Median
- 38.9
- 20th–80th
- 9.4–64.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated