New Mexico State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 12
- 11:59 PM EDT
- Venue
- Hawai'i home
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico State visits Hawai'i in Week 2.
New Mexico State travels to Hawai'i at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Micah Alejado (HAW), Adam Damante (NMSU), and TK King (NMSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Micah Alejado (HAW).
Venue context
Hawai'i is the designated home team at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico State pass protection vs Hawai'i pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Hawai'i's pass rush graded 71.1 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Hawai'i's pass rush.
Hawai'i pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
Hawai'i's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (107th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico State's pass rush.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs Hawai'i coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Hawai'i's coverage graded 65.1 (62nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Hawai'i's coverage.
Hawai'i receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
Hawai'i's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (90th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico State's coverage.
New Mexico State rush offense vs Hawai'i run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Hawai'i's run defense graded 62.6 (120th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Hawai'i's run defense.
Hawai'i rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
Hawai'i's rush offense graded 72.5 in 2025 (100th of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteVOLATILE · Tier 3 | QB | 13.54.7–21.7 | 189107–277 | — | — | — |
| TK KingELITE · Tier 3 | WR | 15.05.1–20.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.4 | 5621–83 |
| Dijon StanleyELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.03.3–16.0 | — | 3410–56 | 2.00.0–3.4 | 160–27 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–13.6 | — | — | — | 4012–58 |
| Brodie Malone-BradfordVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.42.6–13.6 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3211–48 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.8–12.2 | — | 315–53 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 7.32.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | — |
| Myles Libmanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
Hawai'i
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 17.26.8–26.2 | 207140–281 | — | — | — |
| Pofele AshlockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.14.5–21.4 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.3 | 5818–84 |
| Cam BarfieldELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.4–20.2 | — | 4815–68 | 2.00.9–3.4 | 150–24 |
| Tama UiliataHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.11.8–11.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Audric Harrisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.6–10.4 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
| Devon Tauaefabalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.71.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 298–37 |
| Carson BrownELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.3 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–42 |
| DeVon RiceVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.11.0–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
New Mexico State
- Pass yds
- 189
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 26
Hawai'i
- Pass yds
- 207
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 15
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoQB · HAW | Passing yards | 207.1 | 217.1 | 139.7–280.6 | Shop the line |
| Adam DamanteQB · NMSU | Passing yards | 189.4 | 203.0 | 107.0–276.8 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 56.3 | 44.4 | 20.9–82.9 | Shop the line |
| Pofele AshlockWR · HAW | Receiving yards | 57.5 | 44.1 | 17.9–83.8 | Shop the line |
| Cam BarfieldRB · HAW | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 39.9 | 14.6–68.3 | Shop the line |
| Dijon StanleyRB · NMSU | Rushing yards | 34.3 | 28.7 | 9.7–55.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 207.1
- Median
- 217.1
- 20th–80th
- 139.7–280.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 189.4
- Median
- 203.0
- 20th–80th
- 107.0–276.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.3
- Median
- 44.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.9–82.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.5
- Median
- 44.1
- 20th–80th
- 17.9–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.5
- Median
- 39.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.3
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–55.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated