App State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 12
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- East Carolina home
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
App State visits East Carolina in Week 2.
App State travels to East Carolina at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaquari Lewis (APP), Michael Allen (ECU), and Izayah Cummings (APP).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Jaquari Lewis (APP).
Venue context
East Carolina is the designated home team at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
App State pass protection vs East Carolina pass rush
App State's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (106th of 136); East Carolina's pass rush graded 63.5 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's pass rush.
East Carolina pass protection vs App State pass rush
East Carolina's pass protection graded 61.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); App State's pass rush graded 70.7 (11th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for App State's pass rush.
App State receiving corps vs East Carolina coverage
App State's receiving corps graded 63.4 in 2025 (84th of 136); East Carolina's coverage graded 61.1 (105th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for App State's receiving corps. App State's receiving corps returns only 18.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
East Carolina receiving corps vs App State coverage
East Carolina's receiving corps graded 65.9 in 2025 (49th of 136); App State's coverage graded 62.1 (95th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's receiving corps. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
App State rush offense vs East Carolina run defense
App State's rush offense graded 76.8 in 2025 (54th of 136); East Carolina's run defense graded 66.4 (77th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for App State's rush offense.
East Carolina rush offense vs App State run defense
East Carolina's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (67th of 136); App State's run defense graded 70.9 (29th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for App State's run defense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
App State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquari Lewisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 16.46.0–23.4 | — | 6821–104 | 2.20.9–4.1 | 190–32 |
| Izayah CummingsELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 10.43.3–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.6 | 4415–64 |
| David LarkinsHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 10.23.2–15.3 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.9 | 3711–54 |
| Rashod DubinionELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.82.7–14.7 | — | 379–64 | — | — |
| Kanye Robertsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.4–14.1 | — | 4511–67 | — | — |
| Sam MbakeELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.53.1–15.7 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.7 | 3913–56 |
| Dalton StromanVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.6–13.2 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.4 | 3811–57 |
| Alex Sanchezbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–9.9 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
| William Fowlesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.7–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
East Carolina
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AllenELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.72.6–18.2 | — | 4110–65 | — | — |
| Brock SpaldingHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.4 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3711–59 |
| Ashton GrayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.8–12.8 | — | 336–52 | — | — |
| Mitch GriffisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 8.01.3–13.5 | 12215–202 | — | — | — |
| Kanen HamlettVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.32.2–11.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 289–41 |
| TJ Engleman Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.4–11.2 | — | 348–58 | — | — |
| Landon SidesELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.8 | — | — | — | 318–45 |
| Ray Ray Joseph Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.9–9.8 | — | — | — | 277–42 |
| Kyler Pearsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.61.1–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
App State
- Rush yds
- 68
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
East Carolina
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 122
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquari LewisRB · APP | Rushing yards | 67.5 | 59.1 | 20.7–104.1 | Shop the line |
| Michael AllenRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 41.1 | 38.1 | 9.5–64.5 | Shop the line |
| Izayah CummingsTE · APP | Receiving yards | 44.0 | 35.3 | 15.2–64.1 | Shop the line |
| David LarkinsTE · APP | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 29.0 | 11.1–53.6 | Shop the line |
| Rashod DubinionRB · APP | Rushing yards | 36.6 | 30.6 | 9.2–63.9 | Shop the line |
| Kanye RobertsRB · APP | Rushing yards | 45.3 | 39.8 | 11.0–66.5 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.5
- Median
- 59.1
- 20th–80th
- 20.7–104.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.1
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–64.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 44.0
- Median
- 35.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–64.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.5
- Median
- 29.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.1–53.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 36.6
- Median
- 30.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.2–63.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 45.3
- Median
- 39.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.0–66.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated