Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Nevada home
- Mackay Stadium
- Captured market
- WKU -2.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Western Kentucky carries the early number into Mackay Stadium.
Western Kentucky travels to Nevada at Mackay Stadium. The captured market lists Western Kentucky as a 2.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU), Ajay Allen (WKU), and K.D. Hutchinson (WKU).
Market frame
Western Kentucky is the captured favorite by 2.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU).
Venue context
Nevada is the designated home team at Mackay Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Western Kentucky pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
Western Kentucky's pass protection graded 70.6 in 2025 (30th of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada pass protection vs Western Kentucky pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); Western Kentucky's pass rush graded 64.0 (84th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Western Kentucky receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
Western Kentucky's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Nevada's coverage. Nevada's coverage returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Nevada receiving corps vs Western Kentucky coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); Western Kentucky's coverage graded 65.9 (48th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's coverage. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Western Kentucky rush offense vs Nevada run defense
Western Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.0 in 2025 (85th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Nevada's run defense.
Nevada rush offense vs Western Kentucky run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); Western Kentucky's run defense graded 65.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's run defense. Western Kentucky's run defense returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Western Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.ELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.66.7–27.3 | 221126–289 | — | — | — |
| Ajay AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 15.25.5–21.9 | — | 6619–96 | — | — |
| K.D. HutchinsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 12.04.2–20.0 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.0 | 5216–77 |
| Moussa Barrybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.02.7–13.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3411–59 |
| Qua'Vez HumphreysVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.62.4–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 3510–56 |
| Jyziah Rockwellbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.9–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–50 |
| Zion Taylorbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–10.4 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | 287–39 |
| Quincy Burroughsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–37 |
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 10.02.1–19.3 | 14329–244 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.92.0–17.0 | 14932–250 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 349–50 |
| Herschel Turnerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.5–10.8 | — | 307–51 | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 5.61.8–9.6 | — | — | — | 257–41 |
| Dominic KelleyHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.1–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
Western Kentucky
- Pass yds
- 221
- Rush yds
- 66
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 143
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB · WKU | Passing yards | 221.0 | 222.5 | 125.5–289.1 | Shop the line |
| Ajay AllenRB · WKU | Rushing yards | 65.8 | 54.6 | 19.4–95.8 | Shop the line |
| K.D. HutchinsonWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 52.1 | 38.2 | 15.8–77.0 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.4 | 176.5 | 29.2–244.0 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 148.5 | 170.2 | 32.4–250.1 | Shop the line |
| Moussa BarryWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 33.8 | 28.8 | 11.2–59.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 221.0
- Median
- 222.5
- 20th–80th
- 125.5–289.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.8
- Median
- 54.6
- 20th–80th
- 19.4–95.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.1
- Median
- 38.2
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–77.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.4
- Median
- 176.5
- 20th–80th
- 29.2–244.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 148.5
- Median
- 170.2
- 20th–80th
- 32.4–250.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 33.8
- Median
- 28.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.2–59.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated