Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 27
- Time TBA
- Venue
- East Carolina home
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida Atlantic visits East Carolina in Week 13.
Florida Atlantic travels to East Carolina at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Caden Veltkamp (FAU), Easton Messer (FAU), and Dominique Henry (FAU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Caden Veltkamp (FAU).
Venue context
East Carolina is the designated home team at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida Atlantic pass protection vs East Carolina pass rush
Florida Atlantic's pass protection graded 66.1 in 2025 (68th of 136); East Carolina's pass rush graded 63.5 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida Atlantic's pass protection.
East Carolina pass protection vs Florida Atlantic pass rush
East Carolina's pass protection graded 61.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); Florida Atlantic's pass rush graded 64.1 (81st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida Atlantic's pass rush.
Florida Atlantic receiving corps vs East Carolina coverage
Florida Atlantic's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (39th of 136); East Carolina's coverage graded 61.1 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida Atlantic's receiving corps.
East Carolina receiving corps vs Florida Atlantic coverage
East Carolina's receiving corps graded 65.9 in 2025 (49th of 136); Florida Atlantic's coverage graded 57.9 (124th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's receiving corps. East Carolina's receiving corps returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Florida Atlantic rush offense vs East Carolina run defense
Florida Atlantic's rush offense graded 69.9 in 2025 (120th of 136); East Carolina's run defense graded 66.4 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for East Carolina's run defense.
East Carolina rush offense vs Florida Atlantic run defense
East Carolina's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (67th of 136); Florida Atlantic's run defense graded 65.3 (88th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's rush offense. East Carolina's rush offense returns only 16.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida Atlantic
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden VeltkampVOLATILE · Tier 3 | QB | 17.06.9–26.0 | 218146–287 | — | — | — |
| Easton MesserELITE · Tier 2 | WR | 16.46.4–22.8 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.3 | 6527–88 |
| Dominique HenryVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.63.7–18.5 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 5016–76 |
| Kaden Shields-DuttonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.52.7–17.8 | — | 3911–64 | 1.70.0–3.1 | — |
| RJ Garcia IIVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.82.3–11.1 | — | — | — | 339–54 |
| Tucker HollowayHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.7–11.0 | — | — | — | 297–34 |
| Brooks JohnsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | — |
| Marcus VinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.41.5–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Branden HochSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
| Ethan Ervinbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.71.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
East Carolina
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.72.6–18.2 | — | 4110–65 | — | — |
| Brock SpaldingHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.4 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3711–59 |
| Ashton GrayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.8–12.8 | — | 336–52 | — | — |
| Mitch GriffisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.01.3–13.5 | 12215–202 | — | — | — |
| Kanen HamlettVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.2–11.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 289–41 |
| TJ Engleman Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.4–11.2 | — | 348–58 | — | — |
| Landon Sidesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.8 | — | — | — | 318–45 |
| Ray Ray Joseph Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.9–9.8 | — | — | — | 277–42 |
| Kyler Pearsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.61.1–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
Florida Atlantic
- Pass yds
- 218
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
East Carolina
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 122
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden VeltkampQB · FAU | Passing yards | 218.4 | 218.4 | 145.6–287.1 | Shop the line |
| Easton MesserWR · FAU | Receiving yards | 65.3 | 49.2 | 27.1–87.8 | Shop the line |
| Dominique HenryWR · FAU | Receiving yards | 50.0 | 39.1 | 16.0–76.1 | Shop the line |
| Kaden Shields-DuttonRB · FAU | Rushing yards | 39.0 | 37.7 | 11.2–64.1 | Shop the line |
| Michael AllenRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 41.1 | 38.1 | 9.5–64.5 | Shop the line |
| Brock SpaldingWR · ECU | Receiving yards | 37.3 | 31.0 | 11.3–59.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 218.4
- Median
- 218.4
- 20th–80th
- 145.6–287.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 65.3
- Median
- 49.2
- 20th–80th
- 27.1–87.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.0
- Median
- 39.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.0–76.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 39.0
- Median
- 37.7
- 20th–80th
- 11.2–64.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.1
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–64.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.3
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–59.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated