UTSA Roadrunners at Rice Owls college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Rice home
- Rice Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UTSA visits Rice in Week 5.
UTSA travels to Rice at Rice Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Owen McCown (UTSA), David Amador II (UTSA), and Will Henderson III (UTSA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Owen McCown (UTSA).
Venue context
Rice is the designated home team at Rice Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UTSA pass protection vs Rice pass rush
UTSA's pass protection graded 59.3 in 2025 (110th of 136); Rice's pass rush graded 65.2 (71st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Rice's pass rush.
Rice pass protection vs UTSA pass rush
Rice's pass protection graded 58.4 in 2025 (117th of 136); UTSA's pass rush graded 64.5 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's pass rush.
UTSA receiving corps vs Rice coverage
UTSA's receiving corps graded 66.6 in 2025 (34th of 136); Rice's coverage graded 56.7 (131st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's receiving corps.
Rice receiving corps vs UTSA coverage
Rice's receiving corps graded 61.9 in 2025 (106th of 136); UTSA's coverage graded 59.4 (115th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UTSA rush offense vs Rice run defense
UTSA's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (42nd of 136); Rice's run defense graded 64.9 (97th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's rush offense.
Rice rush offense vs UTSA run defense
Rice's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (124th of 136); UTSA's run defense graded 64.0 (111th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UTSA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 17.67.0–26.0 | 239159–288 | — | — | — |
| David Amador IIELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 13.94.5–22.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5920–82 |
| Will Henderson IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 13.53.7–19.8 | — | 5215–80 | — | — |
| AJ WilsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3613–55 |
| DJ Allen Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| A'Marion Petersonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–11.9 | — | 335–52 | — | — |
| Brandon Tennisonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 6.90.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamel Hardy Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mekhi AndersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
Rice
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton JacksonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 10.02.0–18.6 | — | 4111–63 | — | — |
| Jacurri BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.01.7–13.5 | — | 300–51 | — | — |
| Braylen Walkerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.12.2–10.9 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–49 |
| D'Andre Hardeman Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.2–11.5 | — | 325–54 | — | — |
UTSA
- Pass yds
- 239
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 33
Rice
- Rush yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 32
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownQB · UTSA | Passing yards | 239.4 | 232.0 | 158.8–287.9 | Shop the line |
| David Amador IIWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 42.5 | 19.8–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Will Henderson IIIRB · UTSA | Rushing yards | 52.1 | 42.6 | 14.7–79.8 | Shop the line |
| Quinton JacksonRB · RICE | Rushing yards | 41.4 | 37.3 | 10.8–63.4 | Shop the line |
| Jacurri BrownQB · RICE | Rushing yards | 30.1 | 21.7 | 0.1–50.7 | Shop the line |
| AJ WilsonWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 36.4 | 31.0 | 12.6–55.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 239.4
- Median
- 232.0
- 20th–80th
- 158.8–287.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.5
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 52.1
- Median
- 42.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.7–79.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.4
- Median
- 37.3
- 20th–80th
- 10.8–63.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 30.1
- Median
- 21.7
- 20th–80th
- 0.1–50.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.4
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.6–55.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated