Colorado State Rams at Fresno State Bulldogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- 7:30 PM EST
- Venue
- Fresno State home
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Colorado State visits Fresno State in Week 12.
Colorado State travels to Fresno State at Valley Children's Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Darius Curry (CSU), Josiah Freeman (FRES), and Rayshon Luke (FRES).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Darius Curry (CSU).
Venue context
Fresno State is the designated home team at Valley Children's Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Colorado State pass protection vs Fresno State pass rush
Colorado State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (122nd of 136); Fresno State's pass rush graded 63.2 (94th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Fresno State's pass rush.
Fresno State pass protection vs Colorado State pass rush
Fresno State's pass protection graded 73.3 in 2025 (14th of 136); Colorado State's pass rush graded 57.4 (136th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's pass protection.
Colorado State receiving corps vs Fresno State coverage
Colorado State's receiving corps graded 61.0 in 2025 (112th of 136); Fresno State's coverage graded 68.7 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's coverage.
Fresno State receiving corps vs Colorado State coverage
Fresno State's receiving corps graded 60.6 in 2025 (116th of 136); Colorado State's coverage graded 58.9 (117th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Colorado State rush offense vs Fresno State run defense
Colorado State's rush offense graded 74.7 in 2025 (75th of 136); Fresno State's run defense graded 65.0 (93rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Colorado State's rush offense. Colorado State's rush offense returns only 9.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Fresno State rush offense vs Colorado State run defense
Fresno State's rush offense graded 77.2 in 2025 (51st of 136); Colorado State's run defense graded 61.4 (128th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Colorado State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius CurryHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 10.82.9–20.3 | 16864–254 | — | — | — |
| Tay LanierHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.74.0–16.2 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.7 | 4315–64 |
| Tommy MaherVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.8–12.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3811–56 |
| Petey TuckerELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.9–13.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 4012–59 |
| Lavon Brownbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.72.1–11.4 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.1 | 3510–51 |
| Kojo AntwiHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.6–10.9 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | — |
Fresno State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah FreemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.94.0–16.8 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 4615–67 |
| Rayshon Lukebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.33.7–17.4 | — | 4413–63 | 2.30.0–4.0 | 160–20 |
| Bryson DonelsonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.2–12.7 | — | 378–61 | — | — |
| Jahlil McClainbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–48 |
| Brandon RamirezHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.7–11.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Malau'uluSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
| Jayon FarrarELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.5 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–38 |
Colorado State
- Pass yds
- 168
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.3
Fresno State
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius CurryQB · CSU | Passing yards | 168.0 | 196.1 | 63.9–254.3 | Shop the line |
| Josiah FreemanWR · FRES | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 36.7 | 15.0–67.0 | Shop the line |
| Rayshon LukeRB · FRES | Rushing yards | 44.3 | 42.0 | 12.9–63.0 | Shop the line |
| Tay LanierWR · CSU | Receiving yards | 42.7 | 35.9 | 15.3–64.2 | Shop the line |
| Tommy MaherWR · CSU | Receiving yards | 38.3 | 29.2 | 11.0–56.0 | Shop the line |
| Petey TuckerWR · CSU | Receiving yards | 39.7 | 33.3 | 12.4–59.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 168.0
- Median
- 196.1
- 20th–80th
- 63.9–254.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.5
- Median
- 36.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–67.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 44.3
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.9–63.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.7
- Median
- 35.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.3–64.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.3
- Median
- 29.2
- 20th–80th
- 11.0–56.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 39.7
- Median
- 33.3
- 20th–80th
- 12.4–59.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated