Oregon State Beavers at UTEP Miners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- 9:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- UTEP home
- Sun Bowl
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Oregon State visits UTEP in Week 4.
Oregon State travels to UTEP at Sun Bowl. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kam Thomas (UTEP), Jaden Smith (UTEP), and EJ Colson Jr. (UTEP).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Kam Thomas (UTEP).
Venue context
UTEP is the designated home team at Sun Bowl.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Oregon State pass protection vs UTEP pass rush
Oregon State's pass protection graded 61.4 in 2025 (100th of 136); UTEP's pass rush graded 60.4 (130th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Oregon State's pass protection.
UTEP pass protection vs Oregon State pass rush
UTEP's pass protection graded 64.3 in 2025 (84th of 136); Oregon State's pass rush graded 63.9 (87th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Oregon State receiving corps vs UTEP coverage
Oregon State's receiving corps graded 60.2 in 2025 (123rd of 136); UTEP's coverage graded 62.4 (90th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UTEP's coverage.
UTEP receiving corps vs Oregon State coverage
UTEP's receiving corps graded 59.7 in 2025 (128th of 136); Oregon State's coverage graded 63.2 (79th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oregon State's coverage.
Oregon State rush offense vs UTEP run defense
Oregon State's rush offense graded 72.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); UTEP's run defense graded 68.6 (47th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTEP's run defense.
UTEP rush offense vs Oregon State run defense
UTEP's rush offense graded 71.5 in 2025 (106th of 136); Oregon State's run defense graded 63.4 (114th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Oregon State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeCorion TempleSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 8.02.6–12.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 3410–50 |
| Eddie FreauffSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.82.1–11.0 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 308–37 |
| Karson BoschmaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
| Gabe MilbournSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.21.9–10.3 | — | — | — | 288–41 |
| Jake Reichlebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.1–11.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi DurantVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 5.71.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
UTEP
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 12.94.2–19.9 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.3 | 368–61 |
| Jaden Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.2–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.0–6.2 | 4116–67 |
| EJ Colson Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.31.5–17.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Tavorus JonesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.3–10.8 | — | 264–44 | — | — |
| Jaylan BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.9–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–37 |
| Judah EzinwaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.8–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–38 |
Oregon State
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 28
UTEP
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasRB · UTEP | Receiving yards | 35.7 | 26.1 | 7.8–61.2 | Shop the line |
| Jaden SmithWR · UTEP | Receiving yards | 40.9 | 37.6 | 15.8–67.3 | Shop the line |
| DeCorion TempleTE · ORST | Receiving yards | 34.4 | 24.8 | 9.7–50.2 | Shop the line |
| Eddie FreauffWR · ORST | Receiving yards | 29.7 | 20.9 | 8.0–36.9 | Shop the line |
| Karson BoschmaWR · ORST | Receiving yards | 25.9 | 18.2 | 7.2–34.3 | Shop the line |
| Gabe MilbournTE · ORST | Receiving yards | 28.0 | 20.1 | 7.9–41.1 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.7
- Median
- 26.1
- 20th–80th
- 7.8–61.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 40.9
- Median
- 37.6
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–67.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.4
- Median
- 24.8
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–50.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 29.7
- Median
- 20.9
- 20th–80th
- 8.0–36.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 25.9
- Median
- 18.2
- 20th–80th
- 7.2–34.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 28.0
- Median
- 20.1
- 20th–80th
- 7.9–41.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated