North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Texas State home
- UFCU Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
North Texas visits Texas State in Week 3.
North Texas travels to Texas State at UFCU Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Brad Jackson (TXST), Tayven Jackson (UNT), and Beau Sparks (TXST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Brad Jackson (TXST).
Venue context
Texas State is the designated home team at UFCU Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Texas pass protection vs Texas State pass rush
North Texas's pass protection graded 73.9 in 2025 (13th of 136); Texas State's pass rush graded 70.4 (12th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Texas State pass protection vs North Texas pass rush
Texas State's pass protection graded 71.9 in 2025 (21st of 136); North Texas's pass rush graded 64.4 (79th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's pass protection.
North Texas receiving corps vs Texas State coverage
North Texas's receiving corps graded 70.0 in 2025 (9th of 136); Texas State's coverage graded 62.4 (88th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's receiving corps. North Texas's receiving corps returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Texas State receiving corps vs North Texas coverage
Texas State's receiving corps graded 64.7 in 2025 (65th of 136); North Texas's coverage graded 70.2 (18th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's coverage. North Texas's coverage returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
North Texas rush offense vs Texas State run defense
North Texas's rush offense graded 83.4 in 2025 (7th of 136); Texas State's run defense graded 66.9 (66th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's rush offense. North Texas's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Texas State rush offense vs North Texas run defense
Texas State's rush offense graded 80.7 in 2025 (17th of 136); North Texas's run defense graded 67.3 (61st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Texas
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven JacksonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 13.35.0–22.3 | 186122–271 | — | — | — |
| Corri Millinerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.94.0–20.7 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jahiem Whitebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.73.7–18.5 | — | 5012–79 | 1.90.8–3.2 | — |
| Justin StevensonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.6–13.5 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 3610–53 |
| Dalton CarnesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.2–10.6 | — | — | — | 318–44 |
| Andy Jeanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 287–41 |
| Colin Pagebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.1–10.6 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Josiah MartinHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.2 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | — |
| Connor Vaughnbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.4–9.7 | — | — | — | — |
Texas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 23.39.9–31.1 | 207136–264 | 5611–85 | — | — |
| Beau SparksELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.84.7–22.4 | — | — | 4.51.1–6.9 | 5823–81 |
| Chris Dawn Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.34.9–21.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.4 | 5922–86 |
| Jaylen JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.5–11.4 | — | 326–53 | — | — |
| Kylen EvansSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.32.0–10.4 | — | — | — | 288–41 |
| Blake Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
North Texas
- Pass yds
- 186
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
Texas State
- Pass yds
- 207
- Rush yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB · TXST | Passing yards | 206.6 | 201.7 | 136.3–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Tayven JacksonQB · UNT | Passing yards | 186.0 | 202.5 | 121.8–271.0 | Shop the line |
| Beau SparksWR · TXST | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 42.4 | 23.3–81.4 | Shop the line |
| Chris Dawn Jr.WR · TXST | Receiving yards | 59.0 | 47.4 | 21.6–86.2 | Shop the line |
| Corri MillinerWR · UNT | Receiving yards | 54.6 | 39.3 | 18.7–80.2 | Shop the line |
| Jahiem WhiteRB · UNT | Rushing yards | 50.4 | 43.2 | 11.8–79.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 206.6
- Median
- 201.7
- 20th–80th
- 136.3–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 186.0
- Median
- 202.5
- 20th–80th
- 121.8–271.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 42.4
- 20th–80th
- 23.3–81.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.0
- Median
- 47.4
- 20th–80th
- 21.6–86.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.6
- Median
- 39.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.7–80.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.4
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–79.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated