NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 28
- Time TBA
- Venue
- North Carolina home
- Kenan Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
NC State visits North Carolina in Week 13.
NC State travels to North Carolina at Kenan Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Bailey (NCSU), Jordan Shipp (UNC), and Victor Snow (NCSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by CJ Bailey (NCSU).
Venue context
North Carolina is the designated home team at Kenan Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
NC State pass protection vs North Carolina pass rush
NC State's pass protection graded 67.2 in 2025 (60th of 136); North Carolina's pass rush graded 67.9 (41st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's pass rush.
North Carolina pass protection vs NC State pass rush
North Carolina's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (54th of 136); NC State's pass rush graded 65.5 (68th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
NC State receiving corps vs North Carolina coverage
NC State's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (14th of 136); North Carolina's coverage graded 63.6 (75th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's receiving corps.
North Carolina receiving corps vs NC State coverage
North Carolina's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); NC State's coverage graded 59.3 (116th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's receiving corps.
NC State rush offense vs North Carolina run defense
NC State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (43rd of 136); North Carolina's run defense graded 68.3 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
North Carolina rush offense vs NC State run defense
North Carolina's rush offense graded 70.8 in 2025 (112th of 136); NC State's run defense graded 65.9 (81st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for NC State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
NC State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 17.57.2–26.9 | 203106–252 | 270–50 | — | — |
| Victor SnowHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.14.4–21.5 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5717–82 |
| Tad Hudsonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.23.0–19.4 | 15222–244 | — | — | — |
| Will WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.23.0–16.4 | — | 358–57 | — | — |
| Davion GauseELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.4–14.2 | — | 274–39 | 1.80.0–3.2 | 140–17 |
| Davion DozierELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.02.5–12.7 | — | — | — | 3712–54 |
| Jayden ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.0–13.6 | — | — | — | 130–16 |
| Joshisa TraderSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | — | 309–45 |
| Keenan JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.71.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
North Carolina
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ShippHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.74.8–22.3 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.9 | 5820–86 |
| Trech KekahunaVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 399–56 |
| Miles O'NeillSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.11.1–15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Madrid TuckerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.7–12.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 3310–51 |
| Demon JuneELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.31.9–13.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Hallbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan LeacockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 266–34 |
NC State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 152
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 13
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
North Carolina
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 202.6 | 202.8 | 106.2–252.2 | Shop the line |
| Jordan ShippWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 45.4 | 19.6–85.5 | Shop the line |
| Victor SnowWR · NCSU | Receiving yards | 56.5 | 45.3 | 17.1–81.9 | Shop the line |
| Tad HudsonQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 151.8 | 162.8 | 21.7–243.6 | Shop the line |
| Will WilsonQB · NCSU | Rushing yards | 34.9 | 28.7 | 8.1–57.3 | Shop the line |
| Trech KekahunaWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 38.5 | 28.1 | 8.9–55.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.6
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 106.2–252.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–85.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.5
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 17.1–81.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 151.8
- Median
- 162.8
- 20th–80th
- 21.7–243.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.9
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 8.1–57.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.5
- Median
- 28.1
- 20th–80th
- 8.9–55.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated