Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7
- Time TBA
- Venue
- NC State home
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Duke visits NC State in Week 10.
Duke travels to NC State at Carter-Finley Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Bailey (NCSU), Nate Sheppard (DUKE), and Victor Snow (NCSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by CJ Bailey (NCSU).
Venue context
NC State is the designated home team at Carter-Finley Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Duke pass protection vs NC State pass rush
Duke's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (37th of 136); NC State's pass rush graded 65.5 (68th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Duke's pass protection.
NC State pass protection vs Duke pass rush
NC State's pass protection graded 67.2 in 2025 (60th of 136); Duke's pass rush graded 64.9 (74th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Duke receiving corps vs NC State coverage
Duke's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (15th of 136); NC State's coverage graded 59.3 (116th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Duke's receiving corps.
NC State receiving corps vs Duke coverage
NC State's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (14th of 136); Duke's coverage graded 60.2 (110th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's receiving corps.
Duke rush offense vs NC State run defense
Duke's rush offense graded 80.0 in 2025 (23rd of 136); NC State's run defense graded 65.9 (81st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Duke's rush offense.
NC State rush offense vs Duke run defense
NC State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Duke's run defense graded 65.7 (84th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Duke
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate SheppardSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 15.96.4–24.4 | — | 7222–104 | 2.40.9–4.1 | 190–35 |
| CJ Campbell Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 13.34.2–21.1 | — | 5514–78 | — | 200–40 |
| Jeremiah HasleyELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 11.84.0–19.0 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.6 | 4817–68 |
| Javen Nicholasbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.54.0–22.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.7 | 5620–89 |
| Walker EgetELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.42.4–20.2 | 16747–219 | — | — | — |
| Ari PatuHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 7.71.0–16.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Nate Kuriskybalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.72.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Jake TaylorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.8–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–32 |
| Jayden MooreVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–9.6 | — | — | 2.21.0–3.0 | — |
NC State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 17.47.2–26.9 | 203106–252 | 280–50 | — | — |
| Victor SnowHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.04.4–21.5 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5717–82 |
| Tad Hudsonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.23.0–19.4 | 15222–244 | — | — | — |
| Will WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.03.0–16.4 | — | 358–57 | — | — |
| Davion GauseELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.4–14.2 | — | 274–39 | 1.70.0–3.2 | 140–17 |
| Davion DozierELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.02.5–12.7 | — | — | — | 3712–54 |
| Jayden ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.0–13.6 | — | — | — | 130–16 |
| Joshisa TraderSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | — | 309–45 |
| Keenan JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.71.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
Duke
- Rush yds
- 72
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 55
- Rec yds
- 20
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 56
- Pass yds
- 167
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.2
NC State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 152
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 13
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 202.6 | 202.8 | 106.2–252.2 | Shop the line |
| Nate SheppardRB · DUKE | Rushing yards | 72.1 | 61.2 | 22.3–103.6 | Shop the line |
| Victor SnowWR · NCSU | Receiving yards | 56.5 | 45.3 | 17.1–81.9 | Shop the line |
| CJ Campbell Jr.RB · DUKE | Rushing yards | 55.2 | 45.1 | 14.3–78.2 | Shop the line |
| Jeremiah HasleyTE · DUKE | Receiving yards | 47.8 | 38.5 | 16.9–68.3 | Shop the line |
| Javen NicholasWR · DUKE | Receiving yards | 55.5 | 42.4 | 20.2–88.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.6
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 106.2–252.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 72.1
- Median
- 61.2
- 20th–80th
- 22.3–103.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.5
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 17.1–81.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 55.2
- Median
- 45.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.3–78.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.8
- Median
- 38.5
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.5
- Median
- 42.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.2–88.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated