Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- SMU home
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 23 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Virginia visits SMU in Week 7.
Virginia travels to SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 23 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kevin Jennings (SMU), Kendrick Raphael (SMU), and Jekail Middlebrook (UVA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
23 player distributions are available, led by Kevin Jennings (SMU).
Venue context
SMU is the designated home team at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Virginia pass protection vs SMU pass rush
Virginia's pass protection graded 67.5 in 2025 (56th of 136); SMU's pass rush graded 68.0 (39th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for SMU's pass rush.
SMU pass protection vs Virginia pass rush
SMU's pass protection graded 76.1 in 2025 (6th of 136); Virginia's pass rush graded 68.2 (36th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for SMU's pass protection.
Virginia receiving corps vs SMU coverage
Virginia's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (45th of 136); SMU's coverage graded 65.6 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
SMU receiving corps vs Virginia coverage
SMU's receiving corps graded 65.6 in 2025 (57th of 136); Virginia's coverage graded 69.6 (21st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Virginia's coverage.
Virginia rush offense vs SMU run defense
Virginia's rush offense graded 74.8 in 2025 (74th of 136); SMU's run defense graded 73.6 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's run defense.
SMU rush offense vs Virginia run defense
SMU's rush offense graded 74.1 in 2025 (83rd of 136); Virginia's run defense graded 70.2 (35th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Virginia
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jekail Middlebrookbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 15.66.1–24.3 | — | 6719–94 | 3.00.9–4.6 | 310–53 |
| Jacquon Gibsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.95.0–21.2 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.8 | 5718–84 |
| Beau PribulaELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.03.6–24.0 | 11918–210 | 325–56 | — | — |
| Da'Shawn MartinELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5416–75 |
| Rico Flores Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.73.0–13.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 4311–60 |
| Peyton LewisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.3–14.0 | — | 356–55 | — | — |
| Tyson DavisELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.92.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.5 | 4110–58 |
| Solomon BeebeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.1–12.2 | — | 347–53 | 1.60.0–3.1 | — |
| Xavier Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.21.5–12.2 | — | 337–55 | — | — |
| Dakota TwittyELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.22.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 329–46 |
| Kameron CourtneyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.72.1–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 318–44 |
| John RogersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
SMU
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jenningsbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 17.96.9–26.4 | 221149–284 | — | — | — |
| Kendrick RaphaelELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 17.37.5–25.1 | — | 8025–111 | 3.10.9–5.1 | 170–30 |
| Yamir Knightbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.94.3–19.5 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.0 | 5617–82 |
| Yannick Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.73.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 4916–72 |
| Randy PittmanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.82.7–13.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Mabrey MettauerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.91.2–17.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick McFallbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–14.3 | — | 266–46 | — | — |
| Theo Melin OhrstromSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.2 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.0 | 3410–48 |
| Jalen CooperSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–11.7 | — | — | — | 3311–49 |
| Jalen HaleSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.62.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 3111–50 |
| Dramekco GreenSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.81.5–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
Virginia
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 119
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 26
SMU
- Pass yds
- 221
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin JenningsQB · SMU | Passing yards | 220.6 | 217.2 | 149.2–284.4 | Shop the line |
| Kendrick RaphaelRB · SMU | Rushing yards | 79.6 | 70.4 | 24.5–110.9 | Shop the line |
| Jekail MiddlebrookRB · UVA | Rushing yards | 67.2 | 55.4 | 18.8–94.4 | Shop the line |
| Jacquon GibsonWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 56.6 | 44.5 | 17.8–84.1 | Shop the line |
| Yamir KnightWR · SMU | Receiving yards | 56.0 | 43.7 | 16.9–82.1 | Shop the line |
| Yannick SmithWR · SMU | Receiving yards | 49.4 | 39.3 | 15.5–71.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 220.6
- Median
- 217.2
- 20th–80th
- 149.2–284.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 79.6
- Median
- 70.4
- 20th–80th
- 24.5–110.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.2
- Median
- 55.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–94.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.6
- Median
- 44.5
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.0
- Median
- 43.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.4
- Median
- 39.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.5–71.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated