Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Cincinnati home
- Nippert Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Kansas State visits Cincinnati in Week 4.
Kansas State travels to Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to JC French IV (CIN), Joe Jackson (KSU), and Avery Johnson (KSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by JC French IV (CIN).
Venue context
Cincinnati is the designated home team at Nippert Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Kansas State pass protection vs Cincinnati pass rush
Kansas State's pass protection graded 68.8 in 2025 (48th of 136); Cincinnati's pass rush graded 59.6 (134th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kansas State's pass protection.
Cincinnati pass protection vs Kansas State pass rush
Cincinnati's pass protection graded 66.6 in 2025 (66th of 136); Kansas State's pass rush graded 63.6 (89th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Cincinnati's pass protection.
Kansas State receiving corps vs Cincinnati coverage
Kansas State's receiving corps graded 63.1 in 2025 (88th of 136); Cincinnati's coverage graded 66.2 (44th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Cincinnati's coverage.
Cincinnati receiving corps vs Kansas State coverage
Cincinnati's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (42nd of 136); Kansas State's coverage graded 64.2 (73rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Cincinnati's receiving corps. Cincinnati's receiving corps returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Kansas State rush offense vs Cincinnati run defense
Kansas State's rush offense graded 70.3 in 2025 (116th of 136); Cincinnati's run defense graded 68.5 (50th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Cincinnati's run defense.
Cincinnati rush offense vs Kansas State run defense
Cincinnati's rush offense graded 80.2 in 2025 (21st of 136); Kansas State's run defense graded 67.0 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Cincinnati's rush offense. Cincinnati's rush offense returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Kansas State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe JacksonELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 17.27.3–24.6 | — | 7334–112 | — | — |
| Avery JohnsonELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 15.15.0–26.8 | 15677–231 | 377–62 | — | — |
| Rodney Fields Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.35.1–22.9 | — | 6518–96 | 2.20.9–3.8 | 200–35 |
| Garrett OakleyELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 13.54.1–20.9 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.0 | 5117–74 |
| Jaron TibbsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.7–15.9 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.6 | 5016–71 |
| Josh Manningbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.12.2–11.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–49 |
| Brandon WhiteHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.82.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.8 | 3710–55 |
| Izaiah WilliamsELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.32.1–12.7 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | 298–44 |
| Jay Harrisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.2–11.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sterling LockettSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.02.0–10.0 | — | — | — | 297–45 |
Cincinnati
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC French IVELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.87.7–28.1 | 210140–273 | — | — | — |
| Cade Wolfordbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.5–14.7 | — | 161–25 | — | 359–54 |
| Cole Tabbbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.0–11.9 | — | 388–64 | — | — |
| Zylan PerryHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.0–14.6 | — | 369–61 | — | — |
| JV Gibsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.82.1–11.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 349–48 |
| Zion JohnsonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.92.3–13.9 | — | 327–59 | — | — |
| Isaiah JohnsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.71.9–11.1 | — | — | — | 297–40 |
| Gi'Bran PayneHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.2–10.9 | — | 325–52 | — | — |
| Gavin GroverSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 257–34 |
Kansas State
- Rush yds
- 73
- Pass yds
- 156
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 20
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 29
Cincinnati
- Pass yds
- 210
- Rush yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC French IVQB · CIN | Passing yards | 210.1 | 211.1 | 139.6–272.7 | Shop the line |
| Joe JacksonRB · KSU | Rushing yards | 73.3 | 67.6 | 34.4–112.4 | Shop the line |
| Avery JohnsonQB · KSU | Passing yards | 155.8 | 164.7 | 76.6–231.4 | Shop the line |
| Rodney Fields Jr.RB · KSU | Rushing yards | 64.7 | 58.8 | 17.8–95.9 | Shop the line |
| Garrett OakleyTE · KSU | Receiving yards | 50.7 | 40.5 | 16.5–74.3 | Shop the line |
| Jaron TibbsWR · KSU | Receiving yards | 50.3 | 41.5 | 15.6–70.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 210.1
- Median
- 211.1
- 20th–80th
- 139.6–272.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 73.3
- Median
- 67.6
- 20th–80th
- 34.4–112.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 155.8
- Median
- 164.7
- 20th–80th
- 76.6–231.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 64.7
- Median
- 58.8
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–95.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.7
- Median
- 40.5
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–74.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.3
- Median
- 41.5
- 20th–80th
- 15.6–70.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated