Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Sep 18
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Texas Tech home
- Galaxy Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 23 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Houston visits Texas Tech in Week 3.
Houston travels to Texas Tech at Galaxy Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 23 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Conner Weigman (HOU), Cameron Dickey (TTU), and Will Hammond (TTU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
23 player distributions are available, led by Conner Weigman (HOU).
Venue context
Texas Tech is the designated home team at Galaxy Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Houston pass protection vs Texas Tech pass rush
Houston's pass protection graded 55.9 in 2025 (125th of 136); Texas Tech's pass rush graded 75.0 (3rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas Tech's pass rush.
Texas Tech pass protection vs Houston pass rush
Texas Tech's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (16th of 136); Houston's pass rush graded 61.8 (114th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas Tech's pass protection.
Houston receiving corps vs Texas Tech coverage
Houston's receiving corps graded 68.4 in 2025 (19th of 136); Texas Tech's coverage graded 76.5 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas Tech's coverage.
Texas Tech receiving corps vs Houston coverage
Texas Tech's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (13th of 136); Houston's coverage graded 69.6 (23rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Houston rush offense vs Texas Tech run defense
Houston's rush offense graded 75.8 in 2025 (62nd of 136); Texas Tech's run defense graded 77.3 (1st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas Tech's run defense.
Texas Tech rush offense vs Houston run defense
Texas Tech's rush offense graded 80.4 in 2025 (19th of 136); Houston's run defense graded 71.0 (28th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Houston
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 24.810.7–31.2 | 192132–245 | 7121–99 | — | — |
| Amare ThomasELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.75.1–22.6 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.8 | 6027–88 |
| Trent Walkerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.14.2–18.9 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.5 | 5317–78 |
| Patrick OvermyerELITE · Tier 3 | TE | 10.03.7–16.7 | — | — | 3.21.1–5.0 | 4613–65 |
| Re'Shaun Sanford IISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.5–14.5 | — | 4214–66 | 1.70.0–3.3 | 160–26 |
| DJ ButlerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.12.3–12.3 | — | 3710–59 | — | — |
| Harvey Broussard IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.8–12.4 | — | — | — | 3812–59 |
| Makhi HughesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.3–11.8 | — | 437–60 | — | — |
| Luke McGarybalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.12.3–11.0 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| Koby YoungHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 297–39 |
Texas Tech
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron DickeyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 16.25.5–23.6 | — | 6720–99 | 1.90.9–3.3 | 180–24 |
| Will HammondVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 14.12.8–23.9 | 12759–229 | 291–50 | — | — |
| J'Koby WilliamsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.54.7–20.7 | — | 5815–84 | 1.90.9–3.3 | — |
| Kirk Francisbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 10.82.6–19.5 | 17358–241 | — | — | — |
| Kenny JohnsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.83.7–18.6 | — | — | 4.01.0–5.7 | 5515–73 |
| Donte Lee Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.5–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.5 | 5315–74 |
| Terrance Carter Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 10.64.0–16.9 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.0 | 4916–73 |
| Coy Eakinbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.93.1–15.5 | — | — | 3.41.0–4.8 | 4613–62 |
| Malcolm Simmonsbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.13.1–15.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.5 | 4714–66 |
| Jett CarpenterSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 9.83.3–15.5 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.5 | 4313–62 |
| Quinten Joynerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.2–12.3 | — | 3710–57 | — | — |
| Micah HudsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–11.7 | — | — | — | 288–38 |
| Bryson JonesELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.1–12.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.4 | 298–43 |
Houston
- Pass yds
- 192
- Rush yds
- 71
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
Texas Tech
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 18
- Pass yds
- 127
- Rush yds
- 29
- Rush yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Pass yds
- 173
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanQB · HOU | Passing yards | 191.7 | 189.8 | 131.6–245.0 | Shop the line |
| Cameron DickeyRB · TTU | Rushing yards | 67.3 | 52.0 | 19.9–99.2 | Shop the line |
| Will HammondQB · TTU | Passing yards | 127.1 | 155.6 | 58.9–229.1 | Shop the line |
| Amare ThomasWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 60.2 | 47.8 | 26.9–87.6 | Shop the line |
| Trent WalkerWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 53.4 | 49.8 | 17.2–78.0 | Shop the line |
| J'Koby WilliamsRB · TTU | Rushing yards | 57.5 | 50.1 | 15.0–83.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 191.7
- Median
- 189.8
- 20th–80th
- 131.6–245.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.3
- Median
- 52.0
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–99.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 127.1
- Median
- 155.6
- 20th–80th
- 58.9–229.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.2
- Median
- 47.8
- 20th–80th
- 26.9–87.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.4
- Median
- 49.8
- 20th–80th
- 17.2–78.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 57.5
- Median
- 50.1
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated