Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Iowa State home
- Jack Trice Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Bowling Green visits Iowa State in Week 3.
Bowling Green travels to Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaylen Raynor (ISU), Austyn Dendy (BGSU), and Zane Flores (ISU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Jaylen Raynor (ISU).
Venue context
Iowa State is the designated home team at Jack Trice Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Bowling Green pass protection vs Iowa State pass rush
Bowling Green's pass protection graded 64.6 in 2025 (82nd of 136); Iowa State's pass rush graded 60.1 (133rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Bowling Green's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Iowa State pass protection vs Bowling Green pass rush
Iowa State's pass protection graded 61.8 in 2025 (97th of 136); Bowling Green's pass rush graded 65.8 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Bowling Green's pass rush.
Bowling Green receiving corps vs Iowa State coverage
Bowling Green's receiving corps graded 62.5 in 2025 (102nd of 136); Iowa State's coverage graded 65.5 (54th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Iowa State's coverage. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Iowa State receiving corps vs Bowling Green coverage
Iowa State's receiving corps graded 64.6 in 2025 (67th of 136); Bowling Green's coverage graded 62.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Iowa State's receiving corps. Iowa State's receiving corps returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Bowling Green rush offense vs Iowa State run defense
Bowling Green's rush offense graded 70.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Iowa State's run defense graded 65.5 (86th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Iowa State's run defense. Iowa State's run defense returns only 15.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Iowa State rush offense vs Bowling Green run defense
Iowa State's rush offense graded 79.1 in 2025 (29th of 136); Bowling Green's run defense graded 66.8 (67th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Iowa State's rush offense. Iowa State's rush offense returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Bowling Green
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austyn DendySAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | RB | 16.07.1–23.5 | — | 7529–108 | — | 140–24 |
| Hunter NajmELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 9.62.1–17.9 | 14911–220 | — | — | — |
| Brennan Ridleybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–10.6 | — | — | — | 299–46 |
| Leo KempWeekly model | FB | 5.71.3–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Blane CleaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
Iowa State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen RaynorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 18.59.6–29.2 | 215156–282 | 24-2–44 | — | — |
| Zane FloresSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 11.34.0–20.6 | 15444–236 | — | — | — |
| Cameron PettawayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.32.9–16.4 | — | 4014–66 | — | — |
| Tyler Fortenberrybalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.23.0–15.0 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.1 | 3613–57 |
| Omari HayesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.83.0–12.6 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.0 | 4412–59 |
| Evan BoydSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 3410–51 |
| Dominic OverbyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–11.1 | — | — | — | 298–42 |
| Carter PabstSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.4 | — | — | — | 298–42 |
| Aiden FloraVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.01.2–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
Bowling Green
- Rush yds
- 75
- Rec yds
- 14
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 29
Iowa State
- Pass yds
- 215
- Rush yds
- 24
- Pass yds
- 154
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen RaynorQB · ISU | Passing yards | 215.4 | 222.9 | 155.8–281.7 | Shop the line |
| Austyn DendyRB · BGSU | Rushing yards | 74.9 | 62.8 | 29.4–107.5 | Shop the line |
| Zane FloresQB · ISU | Passing yards | 154.0 | 170.2 | 44.3–236.1 | Shop the line |
| Hunter NajmQB · BGSU | Passing yards | 149.3 | 171.0 | 11.3–219.8 | Shop the line |
| Cameron PettawayRB · ISU | Rushing yards | 40.2 | 39.6 | 13.8–66.3 | Shop the line |
| Tyler FortenberryTE · ISU | Receiving yards | 36.2 | 31.5 | 12.7–57.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 215.4
- Median
- 222.9
- 20th–80th
- 155.8–281.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 74.9
- Median
- 62.8
- 20th–80th
- 29.4–107.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 154.0
- Median
- 170.2
- 20th–80th
- 44.3–236.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–219.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.2
- Median
- 39.6
- 20th–80th
- 13.8–66.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.2
- Median
- 31.5
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–57.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated