Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 31
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Texas home
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 21 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Mississippi State visits Texas in Week 9.
Mississippi State travels to Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 21 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kamario Taylor (MSST), Arch Manning (TEX), and Ryan Wingo (TEX).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
21 player distributions are available, led by Kamario Taylor (MSST).
Venue context
Texas is the designated home team at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Mississippi State pass protection vs Texas pass rush
Mississippi State's pass protection graded 65.8 in 2025 (70th of 136); Texas's pass rush graded 68.4 (33rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas's pass rush.
Texas pass protection vs Mississippi State pass rush
Texas's pass protection graded 66.6 in 2025 (65th of 136); Mississippi State's pass rush graded 60.8 (124th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's pass protection.
Mississippi State receiving corps vs Texas coverage
Mississippi State's receiving corps graded 62.4 in 2025 (103rd of 136); Texas's coverage graded 65.2 (58th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's coverage.
Texas receiving corps vs Mississippi State coverage
Texas's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (30th of 136); Mississippi State's coverage graded 62.6 (86th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's receiving corps.
Mississippi State rush offense vs Texas run defense
Mississippi State's rush offense graded 75.6 in 2025 (64th of 136); Texas's run defense graded 72.9 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's run defense.
Texas rush offense vs Mississippi State run defense
Texas's rush offense graded 73.3 in 2025 (90th of 136); Mississippi State's run defense graded 61.8 (126th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas's rush offense. Texas's rush offense returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Mississippi State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 22.26.3–30.3 | 17787–238 | 6316–94 | — | — |
| Anthony Evans IIIbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.84.8–21.3 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5520–85 |
| AJ SwannVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 9.72.7–20.9 | 17688–240 | — | — | — |
| Jaden RashadaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 10.22.5–19.1 | 14349–231 | — | — | — |
| Fluff BothwellELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 11.14.0–16.5 | — | 4815–79 | — | — |
| Marquis JohnsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.62.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 3911–56 |
| Sam WestHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.4–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sanfrisco Mageebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
Texas
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 20.58.0–27.0 | 222142–285 | — | — | — |
| Ryan WingoHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | WR | 15.04.4–22.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.5 | 6320–84 |
| Cam ColemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.24.6–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.5 | 5720–85 |
| Raleek BrownELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.84.8–21.9 | — | 6120–94 | — | 160–25 |
| Emmett Mosley VVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.5–16.3 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.8 | 5315–73 |
| Hollywood SmothersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | RB | 11.94.1–17.7 | — | 4615–75 | 2.40.0–4.4 | — |
| Michael MasunasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.42.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 339–49 |
| MJ Morrisbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 7.31.1–13.6 | 12610–226 | — | — | — |
| Sterling BerkhalterSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.1–11.0 | — | — | — | 339–48 |
| James SimonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.3–10.6 | — | 348–59 | — | — |
| Daylan McCutcheonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–9.7 | — | — | — | 266–32 |
| Emaree WinstonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.6–9.4 | — | — | — | 256–32 |
| Nick Townsendbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.3–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
Mississippi State
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 176
- Pass yds
- 143
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
Texas
- Pass yds
- 222
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Rush yds
- 61
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 126
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorQB · MSST | Passing yards | 176.6 | 182.4 | 87.0–237.9 | Shop the line |
| Arch ManningQB · TEX | Passing yards | 222.2 | 229.8 | 142.1–285.1 | Shop the line |
| Ryan WingoWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 63.2 | 43.2 | 19.9–83.8 | Shop the line |
| Anthony Evans IIIWR · MSST | Receiving yards | 55.4 | 42.5 | 19.5–85.1 | Shop the line |
| Cam ColemanWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 57.3 | 46.3 | 19.7–84.9 | Shop the line |
| Raleek BrownRB · TEX | Rushing yards | 61.4 | 51.4 | 19.9–94.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.6
- Median
- 182.4
- 20th–80th
- 87.0–237.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 222.2
- Median
- 229.8
- 20th–80th
- 142.1–285.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.2
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.4
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.5–85.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.3
- Median
- 46.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.7–84.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 61.4
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–94.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated