Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Neutral site
- Cotton Bowl
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 24 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Oklahoma and Texas open on a neutral stage.
Oklahoma and Texas meet on a neutral stage at Cotton Bowl. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 24 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to John Mateer (OU), Arch Manning (TEX), and Ryan Wingo (TEX).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
24 player distributions are available, led by John Mateer (OU).
Neutral-site context
Cotton Bowl removes the standard home-field assumption.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Texas pass protection vs Oklahoma pass rush
Texas's pass protection graded 66.6 in 2025 (65th of 136); Oklahoma's pass rush graded 68.9 (28th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Oklahoma's pass rush.
Oklahoma pass protection vs Texas pass rush
Oklahoma's pass protection graded 74.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); Texas's pass rush graded 68.4 (33rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Oklahoma's pass protection.
Texas receiving corps vs Oklahoma coverage
Texas's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (30th of 136); Oklahoma's coverage graded 66.4 (42nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Oklahoma receiving corps vs Texas coverage
Oklahoma's receiving corps graded 63.1 in 2025 (89th of 136); Texas's coverage graded 65.2 (58th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas's coverage.
Texas rush offense vs Oklahoma run defense
Texas's rush offense graded 73.3 in 2025 (90th of 136); Oklahoma's run defense graded 72.7 (15th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's run defense.
Oklahoma rush offense vs Texas run defense
Oklahoma's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Texas's run defense graded 72.9 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Texas
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 20.68.0–27.0 | 222142–285 | — | — | — |
| Ryan WingoELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.24.4–22.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.5 | 6320–84 |
| Cam ColemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.34.6–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.5 | 5720–85 |
| Raleek BrownELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.74.8–21.9 | — | 6220–94 | — | 160–25 |
| Emmett Mosley Vbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.5–16.3 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.8 | 5315–73 |
| Hollywood SmothersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 11.94.1–17.7 | — | 4615–75 | 2.40.0–4.4 | — |
| Michael Masunasbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.42.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 339–49 |
| MJ MorrisHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 7.31.1–13.6 | 12610–226 | — | — | — |
| Sterling BerkhalterSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.1–11.0 | — | — | — | 339–48 |
| James SimonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.3–10.6 | — | 348–59 | — | — |
| Daylan McCutcheonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–9.7 | — | — | — | 266–32 |
| Emaree Winstonbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.6–9.4 | — | — | — | 256–32 |
| Nick TownsendHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.3–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
Oklahoma
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mateerbalanced · Tier 3 | QB | 18.87.8–27.6 | 199134–264 | 332–56 | — | — |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.45.4–22.1 | — | — | 4.61.1–6.6 | 5822–86 |
| Trell Harrisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.64.3–19.5 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5719–84 |
| Rocky BeersELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 11.64.0–18.5 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.5 | 5216–75 |
| Lloyd AvantELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.64.6–19.0 | — | 305–51 | 2.40.9–4.4 | 230–42 |
| Parker LivingstoneHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.42.9–14.8 | — | — | — | 3711–56 |
| Jacob Jordanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.4–16.5 | — | — | 4.01.1–6.1 | 4315–72 |
| Xavier RobinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.42.2–17.6 | — | 4210–66 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Hayden HansenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 7.42.3–11.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 359–50 |
| Jer'Michael CarterELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–46 |
| John Locke Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.61.3–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
Texas
- Pass yds
- 222
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Rush yds
- 62
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 126
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 25
Oklahoma
- Pass yds
- 199
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 23
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerQB · OU | Passing yards | 199.2 | 200.8 | 133.5–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Arch ManningQB · TEX | Passing yards | 222.2 | 229.8 | 142.1–285.1 | Shop the line |
| Ryan WingoWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 63.2 | 43.2 | 19.9–83.8 | Shop the line |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIWR · OU | Receiving yards | 58.4 | 50.2 | 22.2–86.1 | Shop the line |
| Cam ColemanWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 57.3 | 46.3 | 19.7–84.9 | Shop the line |
| Raleek BrownRB · TEX | Rushing yards | 61.9 | 51.4 | 19.9–94.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 199.2
- Median
- 200.8
- 20th–80th
- 133.5–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 222.2
- Median
- 229.8
- 20th–80th
- 142.1–285.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.2
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.4
- Median
- 50.2
- 20th–80th
- 22.2–86.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.3
- Median
- 46.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.7–84.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 61.9
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–94.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated