Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Alabama home
- Bryant-Denny Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida State visits Alabama in Week 3.
Florida State travels to Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ashton Daniels (FSU), Quintrevion Wisner (FSU), and Duce Robinson (FSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Ashton Daniels (FSU).
Venue context
Alabama is the designated home team at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida State pass protection vs Alabama pass rush
Florida State's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (17th of 136); Alabama's pass rush graded 60.6 (126th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida State's pass protection. Florida State's pass protection returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Alabama pass protection vs Florida State pass rush
Alabama's pass protection graded 76.0 in 2025 (7th of 136); Florida State's pass rush graded 62.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's pass protection. Alabama's pass protection returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Florida State receiving corps vs Alabama coverage
Florida State's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (46th of 136); Alabama's coverage graded 73.4 (3rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's coverage.
Alabama receiving corps vs Florida State coverage
Alabama's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Florida State's coverage graded 61.8 (98th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's receiving corps.
Florida State rush offense vs Alabama run defense
Florida State's rush offense graded 76.0 in 2025 (61st of 136); Alabama's run defense graded 71.5 (24th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Alabama's run defense.
Alabama rush offense vs Florida State run defense
Alabama's rush offense graded 71.0 in 2025 (111th of 136); Florida State's run defense graded 68.4 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 21.08.5–30.2 | 208142–264 | 6313–93 | — | — |
| Quintrevion WisnerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.15.2–20.9 | — | 7020–101 | — | — |
| Duce RobinsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 13.44.4–21.1 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.2 | 5824–83 |
| Gemari SandsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.33.3–16.2 | — | 378–60 | 2.70.9–3.9 | 170–28 |
| Desirrio Rilesbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.33.0–14.5 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 4314–60 |
| Micahi DanzyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.23.0–15.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.3 | 4413–65 |
| Jayvan BoggsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.72.4–11.9 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3711–55 |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.3–11.2 | — | 326–56 | — | — |
| Landen ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.82.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Ousmane KromahHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.4–11.1 | — | 326–52 | — | — |
Alabama
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hillbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.83.5–16.7 | — | 316–52 | 2.50.9–4.3 | 170–29 |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.9–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 5415–75 |
| Noah Rogersbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.33.0–12.6 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3810–55 |
| Lotzeir Brooksbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.3–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | — |
| Austin Mackbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 7.11.0–12.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Rico ScottVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.62.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Kaleb EdwardsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.7–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.9 | 278–35 |
| Kevin RileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.3–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Fordbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
Florida State
- Pass yds
- 208
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 70
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 32
Alabama
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsQB · FSU | Passing yards | 207.8 | 202.6 | 142.4–264.2 | Shop the line |
| Quintrevion WisnerRB · FSU | Rushing yards | 69.7 | 54.0 | 19.6–100.9 | Shop the line |
| Duce RobinsonWR · FSU | Receiving yards | 57.5 | 46.7 | 23.7–82.6 | Shop the line |
| Daniel HillRB · ALA | Rushing yards | 31.2 | 24.9 | 6.3–52.0 | Shop the line |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 39.7 | 15.2–74.6 | Shop the line |
| Gemari SandsRB · FSU | Rushing yards | 37.2 | 28.9 | 7.9–59.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 207.8
- Median
- 202.6
- 20th–80th
- 142.4–264.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 69.7
- Median
- 54.0
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–100.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.5
- Median
- 46.7
- 20th–80th
- 23.7–82.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 31.2
- Median
- 24.9
- 20th–80th
- 6.3–52.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 39.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–74.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 37.2
- Median
- 28.9
- 20th–80th
- 7.9–59.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated