Texas State Bobcats at Texas Longhorns college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Texas home
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- TEX -30.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Texas carries the early number into DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Texas State travels to Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The captured market lists Texas as a 30.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Arch Manning (TEX), Raleek Brown (TEX), and Ryan Wingo (TEX).
Market frame
Texas is the captured favorite by 30.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Arch Manning (TEX).
Venue context
Texas is the designated home team at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Texas State pass protection vs Texas pass rush
Texas State's pass protection graded 71.9 in 2025 (21st of 136); Texas's pass rush graded 68.4 (33rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Texas pass protection vs Texas State pass rush
Texas's pass protection graded 66.6 in 2025 (65th of 136); Texas State's pass rush graded 70.4 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's pass rush.
Texas State receiving corps vs Texas coverage
Texas State's receiving corps graded 64.7 in 2025 (65th of 136); Texas's coverage graded 65.2 (58th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Texas receiving corps vs Texas State coverage
Texas's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (30th of 136); Texas State's coverage graded 62.4 (88th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's receiving corps.
Texas State rush offense vs Texas run defense
Texas State's rush offense graded 80.7 in 2025 (17th of 136); Texas's run defense graded 72.9 (13th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Texas rush offense vs Texas State run defense
Texas's rush offense graded 73.3 in 2025 (90th of 136); Texas State's run defense graded 66.9 (66th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Texas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 16.05.6–22.3 | 158103–218 | 432–72 | — | — |
| Beau SparksELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.43.6–18.3 | — | — | 4.61.1–6.9 | 5021–74 |
| Chris Dawn Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 11.44.4–17.5 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.5 | 5020–79 |
| Jaylen JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.51.1–8.3 | — | 274–49 | — | — |
| Kylen EvansSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 4.81.6–7.3 | — | — | — | 227–36 |
| Blake Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 4.71.5–7.2 | — | — | — | 226–34 |
Texas
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningELITE · Tier 3 | QB | 24.811.0–29.9 | 254161–313 | — | — | — |
| Raleek Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 15.45.3–22.6 | — | 6423–100 | — | 160–31 |
| Ryan WingoELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 16.64.8–23.4 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.4 | 6220–88 |
| Cam ColemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.84.9–21.4 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.4 | 6220–89 |
| Hollywood SmothersVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.34.9–18.7 | — | 5119–81 | 2.20.0–4.1 | — |
| Emmett Mosley VVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.63.7–18.2 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.6 | 5616–78 |
| MJ Morrisbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 11.11.7–16.1 | 13713–250 | — | — | — |
| Michael MasunasVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 8.02.5–12.3 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.7 | 3310–54 |
| Sterling Berkhalterbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.3–12.6 | — | — | — | 3310–54 |
| James Simonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.11.4–11.6 | — | 3611–64 | — | — |
| Daylan McCutcheonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.01.7–10.6 | — | — | — | 267–37 |
| Emaree WinstonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.61.7–10.5 | — | — | — | 277–38 |
| Nick TownsendHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.61.3–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
Texas State
- Pass yds
- 158
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 22
- Rec yds
- 22
Texas
- Pass yds
- 254
- Rush yds
- 64
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 62
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 62
- Rush yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 56
- Pass yds
- 137
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningQB · TEX | Passing yards | 254.1 | 259.9 | 160.8–312.9 | Shop the line |
| Raleek BrownRB · TEX | Rushing yards | 64.2 | 54.5 | 23.3–99.8 | Shop the line |
| Ryan WingoWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 61.7 | 44.9 | 20.4–87.9 | Shop the line |
| Brad JacksonQB · TXST | Passing yards | 158.1 | 150.1 | 102.6–217.6 | Shop the line |
| Cam ColemanWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 62.1 | 48.8 | 20.4–88.8 | Shop the line |
| Hollywood SmothersRB · TEX | Rushing yards | 50.6 | 49.5 | 19.2–81.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 254.1
- Median
- 259.9
- 20th–80th
- 160.8–312.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 64.2
- Median
- 54.5
- 20th–80th
- 23.3–99.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 61.7
- Median
- 44.9
- 20th–80th
- 20.4–87.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 158.1
- Median
- 150.1
- 20th–80th
- 102.6–217.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.1
- Median
- 48.8
- 20th–80th
- 20.4–88.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.6
- Median
- 49.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.2–81.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated