UTEP Miners at Oklahoma Sooners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Sep 4
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Oklahoma home
- Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
- Captured market
- OU -41.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Oklahoma carries the early number into Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
UTEP travels to Oklahoma at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). The captured market lists Oklahoma as a 41.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to John Mateer (OU), Isaiah Sategna III (OU), and Trell Harris (OU).
Market frame
Oklahoma is the captured favorite by 41.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by John Mateer (OU).
Venue context
Oklahoma is the designated home team at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UTEP pass protection vs Oklahoma pass rush
UTEP's pass protection graded 64.3 in 2025 (84th of 136); Oklahoma's pass rush graded 68.9 (28th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's pass rush.
Oklahoma pass protection vs UTEP pass rush
Oklahoma's pass protection graded 74.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); UTEP's pass rush graded 60.4 (130th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's pass protection.
UTEP receiving corps vs Oklahoma coverage
UTEP's receiving corps graded 59.7 in 2025 (128th of 136); Oklahoma's coverage graded 66.4 (42nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's coverage.
Oklahoma receiving corps vs UTEP coverage
Oklahoma's receiving corps graded 63.1 in 2025 (89th of 136); UTEP's coverage graded 62.4 (90th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UTEP rush offense vs Oklahoma run defense
UTEP's rush offense graded 71.5 in 2025 (106th of 136); Oklahoma's run defense graded 72.7 (15th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's run defense.
Oklahoma rush offense vs UTEP run defense
Oklahoma's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (123rd of 136); UTEP's run defense graded 68.6 (47th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTEP's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UTEP
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.7–13.7 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.2 | 238–49 |
| Jaden SmithSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.72.5–10.7 | — | — | 3.51.0–6.0 | 3113–54 |
| EJ Colson Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 4.61.2–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaylan BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 3.51.4–6.3 | — | — | 2.21.0–3.7 | 195–28 |
| Tavorus Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 3.60.9–6.6 | — | 223–41 | — | — |
| Judah Ezinwabalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 3.31.3–5.5 | — | — | — | 175–27 |
Oklahoma
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 21.510.2–30.1 | 212149–285 | 346–56 | — | — |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.45.6–22.8 | — | — | 4.31.1–6.3 | 5923–90 |
| Trell HarrisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 12.94.5–20.0 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.3 | 5819–88 |
| Lloyd Avantbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 14.14.9–19.3 | — | 3410–58 | 2.10.9–4.2 | 240–47 |
| Rocky BeersELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 12.94.3–19.5 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.3 | 5216–79 |
| Parker LivingstoneVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.1–16.5 | — | — | — | 3711–61 |
| Xavier Robinsonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.42.4–19.0 | — | 4615–72 | 1.50.0–2.6 | — |
| Jacob JordanHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 11.33.5–17.4 | — | — | 3.71.1–5.9 | 4315–75 |
| Hayden HansenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 8.42.5–12.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.7 | 349–55 |
| Jer'Michael CarterSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.0–10.9 | — | — | 2.21.0–3.2 | 328–52 |
| John Locke Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.41.4–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
UTEP
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 23
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 22
- Rec yds
- 17
Oklahoma
- Pass yds
- 212
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 59
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 24
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 1.5
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 32
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerQB · OU | Passing yards | 211.9 | 222.4 | 148.5–284.5 | Shop the line |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIWR · OU | Receiving yards | 59.2 | 51.9 | 22.6–89.6 | Shop the line |
| Trell HarrisWR · OU | Receiving yards | 57.9 | 45.8 | 19.2–87.5 | Shop the line |
| Lloyd AvantRB · OU | Rushing yards | 34.4 | 29.4 | 9.6–57.9 | Shop the line |
| Rocky BeersTE · OU | Receiving yards | 51.7 | 40.3 | 16.1–78.5 | Shop the line |
| Parker LivingstoneWR · OU | Receiving yards | 36.9 | 31.1 | 11.2–61.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.9
- Median
- 222.4
- 20th–80th
- 148.5–284.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.2
- Median
- 51.9
- 20th–80th
- 22.6–89.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.9
- Median
- 45.8
- 20th–80th
- 19.2–87.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.4
- Median
- 29.4
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–57.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.7
- Median
- 40.3
- 20th–80th
- 16.1–78.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.9
- Median
- 31.1
- 20th–80th
- 11.2–61.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated