Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 7:45 PM EDT
- Venue
- Florida home
- Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- Captured market
- FLA -26.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 24 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida carries the early number into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Florida Atlantic travels to Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The captured market lists Florida as a 26.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 24 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jadan Baugh (FLA), Eric Singleton Jr. (FLA), and London Montgomery (FLA).
Market frame
Florida is the captured favorite by 26.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
24 player distributions are available, led by Jadan Baugh (FLA).
Venue context
Florida is the designated home team at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida Atlantic pass protection vs Florida pass rush
Florida Atlantic's pass protection graded 66.1 in 2025 (68th of 136); Florida's pass rush graded 62.3 (106th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida Atlantic's pass protection.
Florida pass protection vs Florida Atlantic pass rush
Florida's pass protection graded 68.2 in 2025 (50th of 136); Florida Atlantic's pass rush graded 64.1 (81st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida's pass protection.
Florida Atlantic receiving corps vs Florida coverage
Florida Atlantic's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (39th of 136); Florida's coverage graded 62.3 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida Atlantic's receiving corps.
Florida receiving corps vs Florida Atlantic coverage
Florida's receiving corps graded 62.6 in 2025 (101st of 136); Florida Atlantic's coverage graded 57.9 (124th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida's receiving corps.
Florida Atlantic rush offense vs Florida run defense
Florida Atlantic's rush offense graded 69.9 in 2025 (120th of 136); Florida's run defense graded 69.6 (39th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida's run defense.
Florida rush offense vs Florida Atlantic run defense
Florida's rush offense graded 82.5 in 2025 (11th of 136); Florida Atlantic's run defense graded 65.3 (88th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida Atlantic
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton MesserSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 12.55.4–19.5 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.4 | 6123–83 |
| Caden VeltkampSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 11.33.1–20.5 | 176122–234 | — | — | — |
| Dominique Henrybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.3–15.2 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 4415–75 |
| Kaden Shields-DuttonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.3–14.0 | — | 339–59 | 1.70.0–3.1 | — |
| RJ Garcia IIVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.81.9–9.2 | — | — | — | 297–55 |
| Tucker HollowayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.11.2–7.8 | — | — | — | 245–33 |
| Brooks JohnsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 5.31.6–7.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | — |
| Branden Hochbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.01.5–7.4 | — | — | — | 225–34 |
| Marcus VinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 5.11.3–7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Ervinbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 4.71.0–7.2 | — | — | — | — |
Florida
14 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadan BaughELITE · Tier 1 | RB | 19.08.7–26.1 | — | 8535–123 | 2.00.9–3.9 | 170–29 |
| Eric Singleton Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.54.5–19.2 | — | — | 4.51.1–6.9 | 5617–73 |
| London MontgomeryVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.64.6–22.5 | — | 6319–97 | — | — |
| Evan Pryorbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.43.4–16.3 | — | 4013–65 | 1.80.9–3.2 | 140–26 |
| Dallas Wilsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.32.5–16.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 4012–62 |
| Vernell Brown IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.0–15.8 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 4516–71 |
| Aaron Philobalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.21.3–18.7 | 13823–244 | 220–41 | — | — |
| Micah Mays Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.12.8–14.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 3912–61 |
| Bailey Stocktonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.82.4–12.8 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | 349–54 |
| Luke Harpringbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.52.2–11.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.8 | 3210–52 |
| Kahleil Jacksonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.82.0–11.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 308–51 |
| TJ AbramsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.22.0–11.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 319–46 |
| Lacota DippreHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 7.22.1–12.4 | — | — | — | 318–51 |
| Amir JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.61.6–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
Florida Atlantic
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 61
- Pass yds
- 176
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 24
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 22
Florida
- Rush yds
- 85
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 45
- Pass yds
- 138
- Rush yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadan BaughRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 85.0 | 75.1 | 35.3–123.4 | Shop the line |
| Eric Singleton Jr.WR · FLA | Receiving yards | 56.0 | 49.1 | 17.2–73.2 | Shop the line |
| London MontgomeryRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 62.9 | 56.3 | 19.0–97.3 | Shop the line |
| Easton MesserWR · FAU | Receiving yards | 60.6 | 43.6 | 23.4–83.4 | Shop the line |
| Caden VeltkampQB · FAU | Passing yards | 176.0 | 163.6 | 121.8–234.1 | Shop the line |
| Evan PryorRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 40.3 | 29.6 | 12.7–64.9 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 85.0
- Median
- 75.1
- 20th–80th
- 35.3–123.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.0
- Median
- 49.1
- 20th–80th
- 17.2–73.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 62.9
- Median
- 56.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.0–97.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.6
- Median
- 43.6
- 20th–80th
- 23.4–83.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.0
- Median
- 163.6
- 20th–80th
- 121.8–234.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.3
- Median
- 29.6
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–64.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated