Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Neutral site
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Captured market
- AUB -7
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 23 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Auburn and Baylor open on a neutral stage.
Auburn and Baylor meet on a neutral stage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The captured market lists Auburn as a 7-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 23 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Byrum Brown (AUB), DJ Lagway (BAY), and Tristan Ti'a (AUB).
Market frame
Auburn is the captured favorite by 7; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
23 player distributions are available, led by Byrum Brown (AUB).
Neutral-site context
Mercedes-Benz Stadium removes the standard home-field assumption.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Baylor pass protection vs Auburn pass rush
Baylor's pass protection graded 65.2 in 2025 (76th of 136); Auburn's pass rush graded 68.4 (31st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Auburn's pass rush.
Auburn pass protection vs Baylor pass rush
Auburn's pass protection graded 64.7 in 2025 (81st of 136); Baylor's pass rush graded 61.2 (121st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Auburn's pass protection. Auburn's pass protection returns only 8.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Baylor receiving corps vs Auburn coverage
Baylor's receiving corps graded 65.8 in 2025 (53rd of 136); Auburn's coverage graded 60.3 (108th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Baylor's receiving corps. Baylor's receiving corps returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Auburn receiving corps vs Baylor coverage
Auburn's receiving corps graded 58.3 in 2025 (133rd of 136); Baylor's coverage graded 66.6 (41st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Baylor's coverage.
Baylor rush offense vs Auburn run defense
Baylor's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (91st of 136); Auburn's run defense graded 71.8 (18th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Auburn's run defense.
Auburn rush offense vs Baylor run defense
Auburn's rush offense graded 77.5 in 2025 (48th of 136); Baylor's run defense graded 63.5 (113th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Auburn's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Baylor
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ LagwayVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 15.24.5–24.3 | 19878–261 | 250–43 | — | — |
| Gavin Freemanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.64.3–20.4 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5217–78 |
| Dawson Pendergrassbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.04.0–19.5 | — | 4915–82 | — | — |
| Louis Brown IVELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.23.3–14.8 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.2 | 4915–72 |
| Michael Turnerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | 4111–66 | — | — |
| Dre'lon MillerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.52.3–13.1 | — | — | 2.30.1–3.5 | 284–48 |
| Caden Knightenbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.1–12.8 | — | 3912–67 | — | — |
| Jadon Porterbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–10.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 289–43 |
| Matthew Klopfensteinbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.71.7–10.8 | — | — | — | 289–40 |
| Tony LivingstonELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.71.9–10.7 | — | — | — | 308–45 |
Auburn
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrum BrownELITE · Tier 1 | QB | 27.612.2–31.6 | 229147–309 | 6612–92 | — | — |
| Tristan Ti'abalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 14.44.3–22.4 | 18587–281 | — | — | — |
| Keshaun SingletonELITE · Tier 3 | WR | 15.05.4–22.9 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.7 | 5926–88 |
| Nykahi DavenportVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.43.5–21.7 | — | 5112–90 | — | — |
| Jeremiah CobbELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.04.2–20.9 | — | 6016–85 | 1.90.9–3.5 | — |
| Jeremiah KogerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.83.7–18.9 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.0 | 4916–78 |
| Chas NimrodVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.94.0–16.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 5315–83 |
| Christian NeptuneVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.82.7–13.4 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 3810–59 |
| Tae MeadowsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.73.1–14.4 | — | 4010–70 | — | — |
| Bryson WashingtonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.1–12.1 | — | 4210–69 | — | — |
| Jake Johnsonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.82.7–11.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 3410–54 |
| Jonathan Echolsbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.91.6–10.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Mabson IIELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.2–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
Baylor
- Pass yds
- 198
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 30
Auburn
- Pass yds
- 229
- Rush yds
- 66
- Pass yds
- 185
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrum BrownQB · AUB | Passing yards | 229.1 | 232.3 | 146.8–308.5 | Shop the line |
| DJ LagwayQB · BAY | Passing yards | 198.3 | 192.4 | 78.3–260.6 | Shop the line |
| Tristan Ti'aQB · AUB | Passing yards | 184.5 | 224.0 | 87.3–281.2 | Shop the line |
| Keshaun SingletonWR · AUB | Receiving yards | 59.2 | 51.1 | 26.3–87.8 | Shop the line |
| Nykahi DavenportRB · AUB | Rushing yards | 51.4 | 46.8 | 12.4–90.4 | Shop the line |
| Jeremiah CobbRB · AUB | Rushing yards | 59.6 | 52.8 | 16.0–85.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 229.1
- Median
- 232.3
- 20th–80th
- 146.8–308.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 198.3
- Median
- 192.4
- 20th–80th
- 78.3–260.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 184.5
- Median
- 224.0
- 20th–80th
- 87.3–281.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.2
- Median
- 51.1
- 20th–80th
- 26.3–87.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.4
- Median
- 46.8
- 20th–80th
- 12.4–90.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 59.6
- Median
- 52.8
- 20th–80th
- 16.0–85.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated