East Carolina Pirates at Alabama Crimson Tide college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Alabama home
- Bryant-Denny Stadium
- Captured market
- ALA -28.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Alabama carries the early number into Bryant-Denny Stadium.
East Carolina travels to Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The captured market lists Alabama as a 28.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ryan Coleman-Williams (ALA), Daniel Hill (ALA), and Noah Rogers (ALA).
Market frame
Alabama is the captured favorite by 28.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Ryan Coleman-Williams (ALA).
Venue context
Alabama is the designated home team at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
East Carolina pass protection vs Alabama pass rush
East Carolina's pass protection graded 61.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); Alabama's pass rush graded 60.6 (126th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's pass protection. East Carolina's pass protection returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Alabama pass protection vs East Carolina pass rush
Alabama's pass protection graded 76.0 in 2025 (7th of 136); East Carolina's pass rush graded 63.5 (91st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's pass protection. Alabama's pass protection returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
East Carolina receiving corps vs Alabama coverage
East Carolina's receiving corps graded 65.9 in 2025 (49th of 136); Alabama's coverage graded 73.4 (3rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's coverage.
Alabama receiving corps vs East Carolina coverage
Alabama's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (43rd of 136); East Carolina's coverage graded 61.1 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's receiving corps.
East Carolina rush offense vs Alabama run defense
East Carolina's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (67th of 136); Alabama's run defense graded 71.5 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's run defense.
Alabama rush offense vs East Carolina run defense
Alabama's rush offense graded 71.0 in 2025 (111th of 136); East Carolina's run defense graded 66.4 (77th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
East Carolina
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AllenSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.21.8–14.1 | — | 318–58 | — | — |
| Brock SpaldingELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.12.1–10.2 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.9 | 3210–57 |
| Ashton Graybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.81.4–8.8 | — | 294–50 | — | — |
| Mitch Griffisbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 6.30.9–9.5 | 10610–172 | — | — | — |
| Kanen HamlettSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 5.61.7–8.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 227–38 |
| Landon Sidesbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.21.8–7.8 | — | — | — | 276–44 |
| TJ Engleman Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.11.0–7.6 | — | 276–53 | — | — |
| Ray Ray Joseph Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 4.61.6–6.8 | — | — | — | 226–37 |
| Kyler Pearsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 4.20.8–6.6 | — | — | — | — |
Alabama
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Coleman-Williamsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.24.0–18.0 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.6 | 5416–79 |
| Daniel Hillbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.73.8–17.1 | — | 3410–59 | 2.30.9–4.1 | 150–33 |
| Noah RogersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.43.1–14.2 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.8 | 3711–60 |
| Lotzeir BrooksVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.22.3–12.6 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | — |
| Austin Mackbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.41.0–15.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Rico Scottbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.22.0–11.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Kaleb EdwardsELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.01.9–11.2 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.7 | 278–39 |
| Kevin RileyELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.51.4–11.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh FordHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.91.7–10.9 | — | — | — | 278–41 |
East Carolina
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 29
- Pass yds
- 106
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 22
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rush yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 22
Alabama
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 54
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 54.2 | 40.1 | 15.6–78.9 | Shop the line |
| Daniel HillRB · ALA | Rushing yards | 34.1 | 26.8 | 9.9–59.2 | Shop the line |
| Noah RogersWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 37.2 | 28.5 | 10.8–59.6 | Shop the line |
| Lotzeir BrooksWR · ALA | Receptions | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0–3.9 | Shop the line |
| Michael AllenRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 31.0 | 25.6 | 7.9–58.3 | Shop the line |
| Brock SpaldingWR · ECU | Receiving yards | 31.6 | 27.0 | 9.9–56.6 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.2
- Median
- 40.1
- 20th–80th
- 15.6–78.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.1
- Median
- 26.8
- 20th–80th
- 9.9–59.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.2
- Median
- 28.5
- 20th–80th
- 10.8–59.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 2.7
- Median
- 2.3
- 20th–80th
- 1.0–3.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 31.0
- Median
- 25.6
- 20th–80th
- 7.9–58.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 31.6
- Median
- 27.0
- 20th–80th
- 9.9–56.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated